TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.3b
24H VOL:
$107,419,736
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,594,026,835
471,138
Markets across
35,775
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,926
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
'%3e%3ccircle%20cx='26'%20cy='26'%20r='26'%20fill='%23000'/%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23fff'%20d='M27.6629%2037.9855L31.004%2037.6925L32.1989%2051.3689C33.72%2051.027%2035.2073%2050.5486%2036.6425%2049.9395V37.8085H40.7697V47.7178C42.4942%2046.577%2044.0775%2045.236%2045.4865%2043.7226L46.0172%2037.6591L49.5548%2037.9678C51.5707%2034.0725%2052.5697%2029.7306%2052.4591%2025.3456C52.3484%2020.9605%2051.1317%2016.6746%2048.9219%2012.886L48.7903%2014.392L44.6631%2014.0303L45.1937%207.97067C43.8569%206.58147%2042.3706%205.34447%2040.7619%204.28222V14.2406H36.6347V2.06247C34.8743%201.313%2033.0358%200.762345%2031.1533%200.420753L32.3463%2014.0637L29.0052%2014.3566L27.7513%200.0314647C27.3308%200.0118035%2026.9062%200%2026.4817%200C24.8262%204.44017e-06%2023.1745%200.157349%2021.5487%200.469906L23.9072%2013.8985L21.364%2014.3468L19.0253%201.0853C16.8454%201.73668%2014.7611%202.67345%2012.8266%203.87129L15.4601%2013.7019L13.4634%2014.2387L11.0146%205.09226C9.12509%206.49278%207.43337%208.1422%205.98527%209.99577L7.26077%2013.5014L5.80446%2014.0322L4.88665%2011.5097C3.41845%2013.6953%202.29182%2016.092%201.54558%2018.6172L1.95829%2018.4678L7.2647%2033.0387L5.80839%2033.5696L1.06407%2020.5303C-0.0225105%2025.6016%200.430464%2030.8821%202.36486%2035.6941C4.29926%2040.5061%207.62683%2044.6301%2011.9206%2047.5369L9.45605%2038.3355L11.4528%2037.7987L14.4677%2049.0567C16.5333%2050.1354%2018.7355%2050.9291%2021.0142%2051.4161L18.6892%2038.1605L21.2343%2037.7122L23.7283%2051.8683C24.6462%2051.9654%2025.5686%2052.014%2026.4916%2052.0138C27.2954%2052.0138%2028.0933%2051.9764%2028.8795%2051.9037L27.6629%2037.9855Z'%20/%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23000'%20d='M46.0368%2018.1276L50.1542%2018.4875L48.804%2033.9372L44.6768%2033.5774L46.0368%2018.1276ZM36.6484%2018.279H40.7756V33.7858H36.6484V18.279ZM31.0099%2018.1611L32.3601%2033.6109L29.019%2033.9038L27.6668%2018.454L31.0099%2018.1611ZM13.481%2033.7898L9.4698%2018.8099L11.4666%2018.2751L15.4778%2033.2452L13.481%2033.7898ZM21.3817%2033.892L18.6892%2018.6211L21.2343%2018.1729L23.9248%2033.4418L21.3817%2033.892Z'%20/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=avatar}
$300M
- Polymarket
$300M - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Crypto
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?
$
Intro
This market tracks whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the Metamask token will exceed $1 billion one day after its public launch. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket, Predict, and Opinion is 52.8% that it will. A secondary outcome, that the FDV will exceed $700 million, has an aggregated probability of 18.5%. Resolution will be based on the most liquid price source available. Keep an eye on developments surrounding the potential token launch, as these markets will resolve based on whether a public, tradable launch occurs by December 31, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms utilize the same core resolution logic and fallback conditions for Metamask's FDV.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source availableCore resolution logic:
- Resolution is triggered by the FDV of Metamask's token exceeding the specified threshold one day after a public, tradable launch.
- "One day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch.
- If Metamask does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'No'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- No Public Launch: If Metamask does not launch a publicly tradable token by December 31, 2026, all markets will resolve to 'No'.
- Launch Timing: The 'one day after launch' period is strictly defined as ending at 4:00 PM ET the following calendar day. FDV must be above the threshold at or before this time.
- Liquid Price Source: The resolution source will be the most liquid price source available. This introduces some ambiguity, but the logic is consistent across platforms.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Predict
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, 1 day after launch, the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the project's token (as specified in the market title) is greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is this CoinMarketCap 5-minute price chart with the chart set to the 24-hour (24h) range. If CoinMarketCap later modifies, backfills, or revises the historical data, this market will use the value of the data point as it was first reported by CoinMarketCap for that timestamp, ignoring any subsequent changes. If the project listed in the title does not launch a token (as defined above) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd estimate of future probabilities. Unlike traditional spot price expectations, which focus on immediate value, this market considers the potential FDV after launch, incorporating future growth and token distribution. The price action here can be seen as a forward-looking indicator, potentially revealing insights beyond current market capitalization. The spread between Polymarket and Predict is currently 0.9, indicating differing levels of conviction among traders on those venues.
Prices on Polymarket and Predict may differ due to variations in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a unique set of participants with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing interpretations of the same event. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform—Polymarket has seen volume of 7.0% while Predict has volume of 6.1%—can influence price discovery. These factors contribute to the observed price discrepancies in the Metamask FDV market.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the fully diluted valuation of Metamask one day after its launch, as determined by publicly available data sources. The outcome will be a simple binary determination: whether the FDV is above a certain threshold, as defined by the leading outcome on each platform. Traders should monitor relevant announcements and data releases leading up to the resolution date.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Key catalysts include announcements regarding Metamask’s launch details, tokenomics, and partnerships. Positive news regarding adoption rates or integrations could drive the FDV higher, while negative developments or regulatory scrutiny could have the opposite effect. Broader market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies and the overall health of the DeFi sector will also play a role. Any significant changes to the expected token supply or distribution schedule could also move the market considerably.
