TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.3b
24H VOL:
$107,419,736
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,594,026,835
471,138
Markets across
35,775
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,926
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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$500M
all
3 markets
Predict
Polymarket
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Crypto
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
$
Intro
This market tracks the probability of Opensea’s Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) being above $1999999999.99 one day after its token launch. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket, Kalshi, Predict, and Opinion is 34.0%. A secondary outcome asks whether Opensea FDV will be above $100M one day after launch, currently at 14.5%. This market will resolve based on the most liquid price source available, with a final resolution if Opensea does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Traders should watch for the token launch itself, as the resolution clock begins 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The markets diverge on the resolution time and the source used to determine FDV. Polymarket uses 4:00 PM ET and 'the most liquid price source', while Kalshi uses 10:00 AM ET and CoinGecko.Hero tip: Pay close attention to the resolution time and the source used for FDV. A price move between 4:00 PM ET and 10:00 AM ET could cause discrepancies.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on FDV exceeding the threshold by 4:00 PM ET the day after launch, using the most liquid price source.
- Kalshi: Resolves based on FDV exceeding the threshold by 10:00 AM ET the day after launch, using CoinGecko as the source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by OpenSea's fully diluted valuation as displayed on CoinGecko at exactly 10:00 AM ET on January 1, 2027. The FDV must be sourced from the "FDV" field on the coin's main CoinGecko page and cannot be calculated from other metrics. If data is unavailable at the specified time, the last recorded FDV value before that time on the measurement date is used. If the coin is delisted before resolution, the final recorded FDV is used and the market resolves immediately. Token migrations to new smart contract addresses are tracked continuously, and post-redenomination values following any splits or reverse splits are applied. CoinGecko methodology changes do not affect resolution—the value displayed under the FDV label at measurement time is authoritative. All values are in USD and may be expressed in millions (M), billions (B), or trillions (T) format.
Predict
This is a group of markets about OpenSea's FDV one day after launch.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, 1 day after launch, the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the project's token (as specified in the market title) is greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is this CoinMarketCap 5-minute price chart with the chart set to the 24-hour (24h) range. If CoinMarketCap later modifies, backfills, or revises the historical data, this market will use the value of the data point as it was first reported by CoinMarketCap for that timestamp, ignoring any subsequent changes. If the project listed in the title does not launch a token (as defined above) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, offer a forward-looking perspective on Opensea’s FDV, differing from current spot prices which reflect immediate market conditions. The prices on Polymarket and Kalshi represent the aggregated beliefs of traders about the probability of the FDV exceeding the target threshold. This differs from traditional financial analysis, which often relies on discounted cash flow models or comparable company valuations. By observing the implied probabilities within this market, you gain insight into the market’s expectations for Opensea’s future performance and potential growth.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing interpretations of Opensea’s potential. Trading volume and liquidity also play a role; a higher volume on one platform can result in tighter spreads and more efficient price discovery. Additionally, subtle differences in platform mechanics, such as fees or margin requirements, can contribute to price discrepancies. The 20.0 percentage point difference illustrates this dynamic.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea one day after its launch, as reported by a widely recognized data source. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and whether the FDV exceeded the target threshold at that time. The outcome of this market will be determined by objective data, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from Opensea regarding new features, partnerships, or user growth could shift expectations. Broader trends in the NFT market, such as overall trading volume or the performance of competitor platforms, will also be influential. Regulatory developments concerning NFTs or cryptocurrency could introduce uncertainty or boost confidence. Finally, macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or investor sentiment, could indirectly affect the perceived value of Opensea and, consequently, the prices within this market.