TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.7b

24H VOL:

$107,266,600

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,176,258,675

332,550

Markets across

33,140

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,150

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto
kalshi
limitless
predict
polymarket
opinion

Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Total volume:
$71,464,719
Volume 24h:
$23,463
25%
Liquidity:
$640,368
0.68%
Open interest:
$23,291
5%

$100M

 - Polymarket

$100M - Polymarket

23%

+6%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 19

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Aug 26

Vol.

$3.3k

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?

22%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 23¢ buys you 435 shares | Odds: 22% Total Payout: $435 | Net Profit: $335 Multiplier: 4.35x | ROI: 335% High Projected APY: 6,508% 127 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 25

Description

This event group tracks whether OpenSea's token will achieve specific fully diluted valuation (FDV) thresholds one day after its public launch. Multiple markets across platforms establish different FDV price targets ($100M to $15B) to measure the token's initial market performance.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Timing divergence (10:00 AM UTC vs 4:00 PM ET, ~6 hours apart) and data source specification mismatch (CoinGecko-only vs most-liquid-source). Both are resolvable but create execution risk across platforms.Hero tip: Traders should monitor OpenSea token price action across both time windows. A 6-hour gap allows significant volatility; FDV could cross thresholds between Kalshi's 10:00 AM UTC snapshot and the 4:00 PM ET snapshot used by other platforms. Kalshi's CoinGecko-only rule may diverge from exchange prices. Consider hedging or timing entry/exit around the earlier Kalshi resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves at exactly 10:00 AM UTC on day +1 after launch. Uses CoinGecko FDV as sole source. Offers 6 distinct FDV thresholds: $2B, $5B, $8B, $10B, $12B, $15B. Key quote: 'If Opensea's fully diluted valuation (FDV) as displayed on CoinGecko is above [threshold] at exactly 10:00 AM on 1 day after launch, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Limitless: Resolves at 4:00 PM ET on day +1 after launch. Uses most liquid price source available (unspecified). Single threshold: $1B. Key quote: '1 day after launch is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.'
  • Predict: Resolves at 4:00 PM ET on day +1 after launch. Uses most liquid price source available (unspecified). Offers 5 distinct FDV thresholds: $500M, $1B, $2B, $3B, $5B. Key quote: '1 day after launch is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves at 4:00 PM ET on day +1 after launch. Uses most liquid price source available (unspecified). Offers 6 distinct FDV thresholds: $100M, $300M, $500M, $1B, $2B, $3B, $5B. Key quote: '1 day after launch is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch.'
  • Opinion: Minimal specification provided. Lists 5 thresholds ($500M, $1B, $2B, $3B, $5B) without explicit timing or source rules. Likely inherits platform defaults.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by OpenSea's fully diluted valuation as displayed on CoinGecko at exactly 10:00 AM ET on January 1, 2027. The FDV must be sourced from the "FDV" field on the coin's main CoinGecko page and cannot be calculated from other metrics. If data is unavailable at the specified time, the last recorded FDV value before that time on the measurement date is used. If the coin is delisted before resolution, the final recorded FDV is used and the market resolves immediately. Token migrations to new smart contract addresses are tracked continuously, and post-redenomination values following any splits or reverse splits are applied. CoinGecko methodology changes do not affect resolution—the value displayed under the FDV label at measurement time is authoritative. All values are in USD and may be expressed in millions (M), billions (B), or trillions (T) format.

Predict

This is a group of markets about OpenSea's FDV one day after launch.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than $1B 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, 1 day after launch, the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the project's token (as specified in the market title) is greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is this CoinMarketCap 5-minute price chart with the chart set to the 24-hour (24h) range. If CoinMarketCap later modifies, backfills, or revises the historical data, this market will use the value of the data point as it was first reported by CoinMarketCap for that timestamp, ignoring any subsequent changes. If the project listed in the title does not launch a token (as defined above) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading volume for Opensea FDV predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the largest crypto prediction markets. It tracks consensus probability that Opensea's fully diluted valuation will exceed specified thresholds one day after launch. With combined group volume of $71,374,509, the dashboard displays current implied odds, 24-hour trading activity of $8,814, and cross-platform price discovery. This multi-platform view helps traders identify where the market consensus stands and spot potential arbitrage opportunities between venues.

Prediction market odds reflect traders' collective expectations about Opensea's post-launch valuation, independent of current spot prices or pre-launch valuations. These odds incorporate forward-looking sentiment, regulatory uncertainty, and competitive dynamics in the NFT marketplace sector. Unlike spot prices tied to existing assets, prediction odds isolate the specific outcome of whether FDV will exceed a given threshold at a precise moment. Comparing market-implied probabilities to your own fundamental analysis of Opensea's launch momentum, user adoption, and market conditions can reveal whether odds appear underpriced or overpriced relative to expected outcomes.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases, operate under distinct regulatory frameworks, and may have varying liquidity pools for this specific outcome. Polymarket shows 22.0% implied probability while Kalshi reflects 23.0%, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Differences arise from distinct user demographics, fee structures, market depth, and settlement rule interpretations. Lower-volume venues may exhibit wider bid-ask spreads and slower price convergence. Traders monitoring both platforms can exploit temporary mispricings, though arbitrage costs and withdrawal delays typically prevent perfect alignment.

Key catalysts include Opensea's official launch announcement and timing, early user adoption metrics, trading volume on day one, competitive actions from rival NFT platforms, and broader crypto market sentiment. Regulatory developments affecting NFT marketplaces, major partnership announcements, or security incidents could significantly shift FDV expectations. Macroeconomic conditions and risk appetite in digital assets also influence valuations. Technical issues or delays at launch could dampen initial momentum, while viral adoption or celebrity endorsements could accelerate it. Monitoring Opensea's pre-launch communications, team updates, and market structure will help traders anticipate probability shifts.