TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$215,176,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,321,740,341
576,656
Markets across
14,624
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,045
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Intro
This market tracks whether Ethereum will reach $1,750 at any point during the 2026 trading year. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus stands at 100.0% for this outcome. Resolution will be determined by Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle data, specifically whether the High price touches or exceeds $1,750 between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET. Watch the close of the 2026 calendar year on December 31 to see whether Ethereum reaches this price target during the full betting window.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses intraday price extremes (High/Low from 1-minute candles) with a touch-any-time resolution logic, while Kalshi uses a single spot price snapshot at a specific moment (Jan 1, 2027 12:00 AM). This creates fundamentally different settlement conditions: Polymarket YES if the price ever touches the threshold during the window; Kalshi YES only if the price is above the threshold at the exact snapshot time.Hero Tip:
If you believe Ethereum will spike above a price level but may not hold it, Polymarket offers better odds because a single touch resolves YES. On Kalshi, you need the price to be above the threshold at the exact Jan 1, 2027 midnight snapshot—a brief spike won't help. For downside (dip) markets, Polymarket requires a touch of the low; Kalshi has no downside markets, only upside thresholds.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Resolves YES if Ethereum/USDT on Binance 1-minute candles touches the specified price (High for upside, Low for downside) at any point between November 24, 2025 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026 23:59 ET. Quote: 'This market will immediately resolve to YES if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT)...has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified.' Touch-any-time logic; includes downside dip markets ($800, $1,000, $1,500, $2,000, $2,500).Kalshi:
Resolves YES if Ethereum spot price in U.S. dollars is above the specified threshold at exactly January 1, 2027 12:00 AM. Quote: 'If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is above [threshold] by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM, then the market resolves to Yes.' Point-in-time snapshot logic; only upside thresholds ($3,500 to $6,000); no downside markets.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect collective trader beliefs about Ethereum's 2026 price, which may diverge from current spot prices due to time horizon, volatility expectations, and risk premiums. Markets price in both bullish and bearish scenarios; some outcomes show strong conviction while others remain uncertain. The aggregated volume of $8,281,098 indicates substantial interest in this event. Comparing these odds to today's spot price reveals whether the market expects appreciation, depreciation, or range-bound trading over the next two years, accounting for macroeconomic shifts and on-chain developments.
Kalshi and Polymarket may show different implied probabilities for the same Ethereum price outcome due to distinct user bases, liquidity pools, and market-making strategies. Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and order-flow patterns also influence pricing. Kalshi currently shows chance for its top outcome, while Polymarket shows , a spread of percentage points. These gaps create arbitrage opportunities and reflect how fragmented prediction markets remain across geographies and trading styles.
Major catalysts include Ethereum protocol upgrades, shifts in institutional adoption, regulatory clarity or crackdowns, macroeconomic cycles, and Bitcoin price movements. Staking yield changes, layer-2 scaling success, and competition from other smart-contract platforms also influence sentiment. Geopolitical events, central bank policy, and tech sector valuations ripple into crypto markets. Large liquidations or whale accumulation can trigger sharp repricing. With Jan 1, 2027 still distant, traders should monitor on-chain metrics, developer activity, and broader market structure to adjust positions as conviction levels change.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.