TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.3b
24H VOL:
$107,419,736
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,594,026,835
471,138
Markets across
35,775
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,926
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
↓ 2,250
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
$
This market tracks the probability of Ethereum’s price dipping to $2,250 by December 31, 2026. Currently, the aggregated view from Polymarket and Limitless indicates a 65.5% probability of this outcome. Resolution will be based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle data (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). Forecasters should watch the price action leading up to the resolution date of January 1, 2027, as this will determine whether Ethereum reaches the specified price level within the defined timeframe.
What price will Ethereum hit before 2027?
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective on future price movements, potentially offering a different outlook than traditional spot price expectations. Current spot prices are influenced by immediate supply and demand, while this market incorporates a broader range of factors, including anticipated network upgrades, regulatory changes, and overall market sentiment. The volume of $127,682 demonstrates active trading and a degree of confidence in the predictions being made. Comparing these odds to analyst forecasts can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential Ethereum price trajectories.
Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Limitless may differ due to variations in trader demographics, market design, and liquidity. Polymarket has a more established user base and a wider range of markets, potentially leading to more informed pricing. Conversely, Limitless might attract a different set of traders with varying risk appetites and perspectives on Ethereum's future. These differing dynamics can result in discrepancies in the odds, even when both platforms address the same underlying question. The differing volume on each platform also contributes to these price variations.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of Ethereum on December 31, 2026, as reported by a widely recognized and reliable financial data source, will determine the outcome. Traders will be able to see the verified price and the resulting payout structure at that time. The resolution process ensures transparency and accuracy in determining the final result of this market.
Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major Ethereum network upgrades, such as the implementation of new scaling solutions, could boost confidence and drive prices higher. Conversely, negative regulatory developments or security breaches could trigger a sell-off. Broader macroeconomic factors, like interest rate changes and inflation, will also play a role. Additionally, the adoption of Ethereum by institutional investors and the growth of decentralized finance (DeFi) applications could influence sentiment and move the market substantially before Jan 1, 2027.