TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of XRP at a specific future moment, using a precise average price measurement at a defined time and date. The outcome depends entirely on where the price falls within a range of possible values at that exact moment.
The event resolves based on the simple average price of XRP, measured using the CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) during the sixty seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on October 23, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the calculated average falls within that range at the exact specified time. If pricing data is unavailable or incomplete for the required period, all affected markets resolve to 'No'. The Exchange ensures clarity regarding any multiple versions of the cryptocurrency being tracked. Continuous real-time data from CF Benchmarks underpins all price assessments, ensuring transparency and accuracy in determining outcomes.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast about the XRP price in late 2026. These expectations are often different from those found in traditional spot markets or analyst predictions. Spot prices focus on immediate value, while this market represents a probabilistic view of a future price. Polls and surveys of financial analysts may offer different perspectives, but this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to express their beliefs with real capital. It’s a unique way to gauge future expectations beyond simple price predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different XRP price ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of XRP being within that range at the specified time. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and changing sentiment regarding XRP's future value. The current volume traded indicates the level of interest and confidence in these price predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome determined by verifying the XRP price against credible public reporting at 5pm EDT on that date. The market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the price range XRP will be trading in. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized and publicly available source for XRP’s price, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders should monitor news and events related to XRP leading up to the resolution date to stay informed.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 23, 2026. Major regulatory decisions regarding XRP, such as rulings on its security status, would likely cause substantial price movement. Significant technological advancements or partnerships related to the XRP Ledger could also influence the market. Broader macroeconomic trends, like changes in interest rates or inflation, and overall sentiment towards cryptocurrencies will also play a role. Unexpected news events impacting Ripple Labs, the company behind XRP, could also shift expectations and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.