TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 12:14 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a strong expectation that the XRP price will fall within a specific range on October 13. These expectations are formed by traders directly wagering on the outcome, creating a forward-looking price discovery mechanism. This differs from traditional polls or analyst predictions, which rely on stated opinions rather than actual capital at risk. The collective wisdom of the crowd in this market suggests a different probability distribution than might be found in surveys of financial experts, offering a unique perspective on potential price movements.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different XRP price ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that price range being correct on October 13. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth and trading volume influence how quickly prices adjust to new information and changing sentiment, creating a dynamic and responsive pricing system.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of XRP as reported by a widely recognized and trusted exchange at a specific time on October 13. The exact price used for resolution will be determined by the platform’s standard procedures for verifying data from reliable sources, ensuring a fair and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 13, 2026. Major news regarding Ripple Labs, the company behind XRP, such as legal developments or partnerships, could trigger price swings. Broader cryptocurrency market trends, including Bitcoin’s performance and overall investor sentiment, will also play a role. Unexpected macroeconomic data releases or regulatory announcements related to digital assets could also cause shifts in the odds. Finally, any significant technical developments or adoption news related to the XRP network itself could move this market.