TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of a specific cryptocurrency at a precise moment in the future, using a standardized pricing source. The outcome depends on whether the price exceeds various thresholds at the exact specified time, reflecting potential volatility and market movements over the observed period.
All markets resolve based on the simple average price of XRP over the sixty seconds immediately preceding 5:00 PM EDT on October 30, 2026, as reported by the CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI). Each market has a distinct price threshold; if the calculated average exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to 'Yes,' otherwise to 'No.' Data availability is critical—markets resolve to 'No' if pricing data is missing or incomplete for the specified period. The Exchange ensures clarity regarding the specific XRP version or ticker used, as multiple versions may exist. The CF Benchmarks index is recognized for providing continuous, real-time pricing data for major cryptocurrencies, ensuring consistent and reliable evaluation for all thresholds at the exact expiration time.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the XRP price that may differ from those found in traditional financial polls or analyst reports. These sources often rely on fundamental and technical analysis, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing what traders are willing to bet on. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the inclusion of subjective factors in traditional forecasts. It's important to consider both perspectives when forming your own expectations for the XRP price.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future XRP price. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the market price adjusts accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of the probability of different outcomes. The current market depth and order book are visible directly on the Kalshi interface.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the XRP price at 5pm EDT on October 30, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the weighted average price of XRP across major cryptocurrency exchanges at the specified time. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome, reflecting the actual market conditions at the resolution date.
Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and its resolution. Major regulatory developments concerning cryptocurrencies, particularly those impacting XRP, would likely cause substantial price movement. Significant technological advancements or partnerships related to the XRP network could also shift expectations. Broader macroeconomic trends, such as changes in interest rates or inflation, and overall sentiment towards risk assets could also play a role. Unexpected news events affecting Ripple Labs, the company behind XRP, are also likely to move this market.