TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 03d:18h:02m
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The event tracks the price of a specific cryptocurrency at a precise moment in the future, determining outcomes based on whether the price exceeds various thresholds. It uses real-time data averaged over a short window to establish the final value at the exact timestamp.
The event resolves based on the Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) price as provided by CF Benchmarks. For each market, the outcome depends on whether the simple average of the index over the sixty seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EST on November 6, 2026, exceeds the specified threshold. All markets share the same data source and timing requirements. If pricing data is unavailable or incomplete for the specified minute, all affected markets resolve to No. The Exchange ensures clarity regarding any multiple versions of the cryptocurrency by specifying the exact ticker or version being tracked. Continuous real-time data from CF Benchmarks underpins all resolution determinations.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the XRP price that may differ from those found in traditional financial polls or analyst expectations. While spot price expectations are often based on current market conditions and short-term trends, this market incorporates a broader range of factors and allows participants to express their beliefs about the price of XRP nearly ten months from now. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, time horizons, and the incentive structure of prediction markets, which rewards accurate forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential XRP prices. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that price occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices of these contracts adjust, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as profitable trades depend on correctly predicting the eventual XRP price.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome determined by the price of XRP at 5pm EST on November 6, 2026. The final price will be verified against credible public reporting from established financial data providers. The contract corresponding to the price closest to the verified XRP price at the specified time will settle at 100, while all other contracts will settle at 0. This ensures a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome based on publicly available data.
Numerous factors could influence the price of XRP and, consequently, move this market. Major regulatory developments concerning cryptocurrencies, particularly in the United States, could have a significant impact. Technological advancements within the Ripple network, such as upgrades to the XRP Ledger, are also potential catalysts. Broader macroeconomic conditions, including inflation rates and global economic growth, could affect investor sentiment towards risk assets like XRP. Finally, significant adoption of XRP by financial institutions or corporations could drive up demand and influence the market.