TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 12:12 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than typical spot price expectations for XRP. While spot markets reflect immediate supply and demand, this market represents a collective forecast of where the price will be on a specific future date. Discrepancies can arise from factors like anticipated news events, regulatory changes, or broader market trends that aren't fully priced into the current spot price. Analyzing these differences can provide valuable insights into the market's forward-looking expectations.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of XRP being above the specified price on October 18. As more traders buy 'yes' shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective wisdom of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of XRP as reported by a widely recognized and reliable exchange at a specific time on October 18. The exact price used for resolution will be determined by Polymarket’s process, but will be sourced from publicly available data. Traders will then receive payouts based on the final outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major news regarding XRP’s legal battles with the SEC, partnerships with key companies, or significant technological advancements could all impact the price. Broader cryptocurrency market trends, such as a bull or bear run in Bitcoin, can also influence XRP’s price. Unexpected regulatory announcements or macroeconomic factors impacting risk sentiment could also play a role in shifting the odds on this market.