This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the September 28, 2026 trading day is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures for the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures for the September 28, 2026 trading day is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures for the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session for the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption, the official close price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe will be used to determine the closing price for that day (See: https://www.ice.com/report/10 with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected). In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe available at https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the WTI crude oil market tracks the current odds of the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil being higher or lower on September 28. You can see the implied probability of each outcome, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $8,983. The total volume traded in this market is $10,792. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the direction of oil prices as the resolution date approaches.

Currently, prediction market participants are indicating a strong belief that the price of WTI crude oil will rise by September 28. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which are more divided on the direction of oil prices given geopolitical factors and supply chain concerns. While analysts often provide a range of potential outcomes, this market consolidates sentiment into a single, quantifiable probability. It's important to remember that prediction markets represent the collective wisdom of traders, while analyst forecasts represent individual opinions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether WTI crude oil will be up or down on September 28. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price of a 'yes' share (oil up) indicates the probability of that outcome, as perceived by traders on Polymarket.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official closing price of WTI crude oil futures contracts on September 28. If the closing price is higher than the opening price on that date, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the closing price is lower, the 'down' outcome will prevail. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the verified result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Sep 28, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, could cause a sharp price increase. Conversely, signs of a global economic slowdown or increased oil production from OPEC+ could push prices lower. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to demand in key economies like China and the United States, will also be closely watched. Any significant news regarding inventory levels or changes in energy policy could also move this market.

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 28?

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