TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Fed Decision in December?
polymarket
predict

Fed Decision in December?

Total volume:
$3,511,451
Volume 24h:
$299,700
83%
Liquidity:
$969,688
1%
Open interest:
$517,569N/A

25 bps increase

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 10, 2026

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

79%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 79¢ buys you 127 shares | Odds: 79% Total Payout: $127 | Net Profit: $27 Multiplier: 1.27x | ROI: 27% | APY: 378% 55 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
79%
3%
Yes 79¢No 22¢
1¢
$200,924
$870,028
7%
16%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
predict

25 bps increase

Trade
74%
2%
Yes 78.9¢No 30.4¢
9.3¢
$30,827
$3,530
5%
14%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
78.5%
Yes 79¢No 26.2¢
Avg: 5.1¢Max: 9.3¢
predict

No change

Trade
20%
4%
Yes 22.6¢No 81.9¢
4.5¢
$30,107
$5,065
8%
13%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

No change

Trade
20%
Yes 20¢No 81¢
1¢
$214,547
$800,625
8%
31%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
19.5%
Yes 21.3¢No 81.5¢
Avg: 2.8¢Max: 4.5¢
predict

50+ bps increase

Trade
14%
10%
Yes 27.2¢No 99.9¢
27.1¢
$29,952
$17
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
3%
Yes 2.8¢No 97.3¢
0.1¢
$115,478
$501,012
13%
24%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.8%
Yes 15¢No 98.6¢
Avg: 13.6¢Max: 27.1¢
predict

25 bps decrease

Trade
50%
47%
Yes 99.7¢No 99.7¢
99.4¢
$37,686
$50
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.3¢
0.2¢
$183,227
$672,774
8%
21%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.8%
Yes 50.3¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 49.8¢Max: 99.4¢
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.7¢
0.2¢
$126,940
$658,351
13%
47%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
predict

50+ bps decrease

Trade
N/A
N/A
49.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 25¢Max: 49.8¢
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks the probability of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates by 25 basis points following their December 2026 meeting. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket and Predict is 74.5% that the Fed will raise rates. Resolution will be based on the FOMC’s statement released after their meeting on December 8-9, 2026, with data available at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. Market participants should closely watch the economic data released leading up to the December 10, 2026 resolution date estimate, as this will likely influence final predictions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict utilize the same resolution source (FOMC statement and Federal Reserve website) and rounding rules for determining the change in the target federal funds rate.Primary resolution logic: FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, and data published at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
  • Changes not expressed in 25 bps increments will be rounded *up* to the nearest 25 bps.
  • If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to 'No change'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Rounding: A change of 12.5 bps will be considered 25 bps. A change of 37.5 bps will be considered 50 bps.
  • No Statement: If the FOMC fails to release a statement by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the markets will resolve to 'No change'.
Timing: The markets may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued, but no later than the end date of the next scheduled FOMC meeting if no statement is released.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Predict

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this dashboard tracks the aggregate sentiment around the December Fed decision. Currently, the collective volume across both platforms is $3,511,451, with $299,581 traded in the last 24 hours. The December Fed decision market provides a consensus view of traders’ expectations for the Federal Reserve’s actions at their December meeting. Polymarket currently shows a 78.5% probability for Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?, while Predict also indicates Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? with a 74.2% probability. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of market predictions.

Prediction market odds often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on economic models and expert opinions, this market incorporates a broader range of information and incentives. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the ability of market participants to rapidly adjust their positions based on new information. It’s valuable to compare both sources to gain a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes. The current volume of $3,511,451 suggests significant interest in this market.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structures, which can influence price discovery. Differences in liquidity—the amount of volume available—can also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, varying levels of information access and interpretation among traders on each platform can lead to differing assessments of the likelihood of the Fed increasing interest rates. The 4.3 point difference in probabilities between the two platforms illustrates this dynamic.

This market resolves around Dec 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether the Federal Reserve increases interest rates by 25 basis points after the December 2026 meeting, as publicly announced by the Federal Reserve. The outcome will be determined by official statements released by the Federal Reserve following their December meeting, and will be verified against credible public sources. The current volume of $3,511,451 demonstrates strong interest in the outcome of this event.

Several key economic indicators and Federal Reserve communications could significantly impact this market. Inflation reports, employment data, and GDP growth figures will all be closely watched by traders. Statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy, including speeches and press conferences, could also trigger price movements. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global economic conditions could also influence the market. Any indication of a change in the Fed's stance on interest rates is likely to cause volatility in this market, with a current 24-hour volume of $299,581.