TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.6b

24H VOL:

$120,500,996

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,317,581,230

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,175,716,214

332,638

Markets across

32,154

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,978

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Science and Technology
Entertainment
Fed Decision in December?
Other
polymarket

Fed Decision in December?

Jul 29, 2026, 8:43 PM EST - Dec 9, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$255,461
Volume 24h:
$41,442
400%
Liquidity:
$712,255
89%
Open interest:
$56,949N/A

No change

 - Polymarket

No change - Polymarket

63%

-5%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

62%64%66%68%

Aug 15

Aug 16

Aug 17

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 22

Vol.

$12.8k

·

Resolves Dec 9, 2026

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

63%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 63¢ buys you 159 shares | Odds: 63% Total Payout: $159 | Net Profit: $59 Multiplier: 1.59x | ROI: 59% | APY: 370% 109 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Fed December decision market on Polymarket tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $40,452. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of various Federal Reserve actions by showing top outcome chances at 62.5% and total volume at $255,461. This gives you a live view of market sentiment for the Fed December decision market.

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more immediate, trader-driven view of Fed policy expectations. While analysts may incorporate a wide range of economic data and forward guidance, market odds capture the aggregated bets of participants on Polymarket in real time. The current implied probability can diverge from consensus estimates, especially when new economic data or speeches from Fed officials shift expectations suddenly.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the odds through buying and selling contracts that pay out based on the Fed's December decision. The current top outcome is priced at around 62.5%, with volume of $40,452 over the last 24 hours. Prices adjust continuously as new information about inflation, employment, or Fed communication flows into the market.

This market resolves around Dec 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Fed's December decision is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact policy outcome — such as any interest rate change or forward guidance — will be announced in the Fed's official statement and press conference, determining which contracts settle in full.

Key signals that could shift this market include upcoming U.S. inflation reports, employment data releases, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Any unexpected economic data or policy hints in these communications can cause rapid re-pricing of contracts on Polymarket, especially in the days leading up to the decision. Market participants will also watch global central bank actions for broader context.