TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.9b

24H VOL:

$106,489,002

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,181,535,005

338,833

Markets across

33,624

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,320

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Anthropic IPO by __?

Anthropic IPO by __?

Jun 1, 2026, 5:08 PM EST - Jun 30, 2027, 8:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$2,012,740
Volume 24h:
$24,119
65%
Liquidity:
$79,364
13%
Open interest:
$519,658N/A

December 31, 2026

 - Polymarket

December 31, 2026 - Polymarket

91%

+3%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$64.2k

·

Resolves Jul 1, 2027

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

91%chance
Amount

$

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
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Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether Anthropic will conduct an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, according to Polymarket rules. The current probability of a “Yes” outcome stands at 89.0%, with resolution based on official filings and announcements from Anthropic and relevant securities exchanges. Watch for any official press releases or SEC filings from Anthropic before the July 1, 2027 estimation point, as these could provide definitive signals.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The PredictionHero dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Anthropic IPO event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability that Anthropic will complete an initial public offering by the specified deadline, updated as traders buy and sell shares. The dashboard shows the leading outcome's current chance percentage, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume in USD. This single-venue view lets you monitor how market sentiment shifts as new information about Anthropic's business trajectory, funding status, and IPO timeline emerges.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations, which often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. While equity research teams may publish IPO timing estimates based on financial modeling and industry interviews, prediction markets aggregate live trading signals from participants with direct financial incentives. Comparing 90.5% percent market odds to analyst consensus reveals whether traders are more bullish or bearish on near-term Anthropic IPO probability. Markets typically react faster to breaking news, funding announcements, or leadership changes than published analyst reports.

On Polymarket, the Anthropic IPO event is priced as a binary outcome contract where traders buy or sell shares representing yes or no positions. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the cumulative trading activity and belief among Polymarket participants about whether Anthropic will IPO by the deadline. Share prices range from $0 to $1, with the difference between buy and sell prices representing the bid-ask spread. Traders profit by correctly predicting the outcome; prices move continuously as new orders flow in, making Polymarket's price discovery mechanism responsive to company developments, market conditions, and investor sentiment.

The Anthropic IPO by __ market resolves on Jul 1, 2027. Resolution is determined by whether Anthropic has completed and listed its shares on a major public exchange by that date. The outcome is binary: if Anthropic's IPO closes before the deadline, the yes outcome resolves to $1 per share; if no IPO has occurred by that time, the no outcome resolves to $1 per share and yes resolves to $0. Resolution relies on official regulatory filings, exchange announcements, and verified news sources to confirm IPO completion.

Several catalysts could shift odds on the Anthropic IPO market. Major funding rounds, leadership announcements, or strategic partnerships may signal accelerated or delayed IPO timelines. Regulatory changes affecting AI companies, broader market volatility, or tech sector IPO activity could influence trader sentiment. Anthropic's revenue growth, profitability milestones, or competitive positioning updates often trigger repricing. Public statements from executives about IPO plans carry outsized weight. Macroeconomic shifts, interest rate changes, and shifts in investor appetite for AI stocks also move the market. Breaking news about competing AI companies' IPO plans may serve as reference points for traders assessing Anthropic's timeline.