TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.3b

24H VOL:

$96,269,134

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,361,103,189

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,154,454,441

329,226

Markets across

32,675

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,717

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Fed Decision in January?
Other
kalshi
polymarket

Fed Decision in January?

Total volume:
$54,477
Volume 24h:
$502
85%
Liquidity:
$243,447
15%
Open interest:
$117
0%

No change

 - Polymarket

No change - Polymarket

61%

-1%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

59%60%61%62%63%

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Vol.

$2.1k

·

Resolves Jan 31, 2027

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

61%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 61¢ buys you 164 shares | Odds: 61% Total Payout: $164 | Net Profit: $64 Multiplier: 1.64x | ROI: 64% | APY: 220% 155 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event group contains two distinct sets of markets: one set concerning Federal Reserve interest rate decisions following the January 2027 meeting, and another set concerning NFL playoff seedings for the 2026-27 season. The Fed markets focus on potential changes to the target federal funds rate, while the NFL markets focus on which team will secure the #6 seed in the National Football Conference.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental category mismatch between financial policy markets and sports playoff marketsHero tip: These markets resolve to completely different real-world events (Fed policy vs NFL playoffs). There is no relationship between these outcomes. Traders should treat them as separate categories with no correlation.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Federal Reserve interest rate changes after the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Uses official FOMC statements and Federal Reserve website data as resolution sources. Changes are rounded to nearest 25 bps bracket.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on NFL playoff seeding for the 2026-27 season. Specifically resolves to Yes if any listed NFC team finishes as the #6 seed in the conference standings.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Kalshi

The event determines the National Football Conference's sixth playoff seed for the 2026-27 season. Each market corresponds to a specific NFC team, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular team finishes the regular season in the sixth position of the NFC standings, thereby earning the sixth seed in the postseason. Only one team can hold this position at the conclusion of the regular season, meaning only one market will resolve to 'Yes' while all others resolve to 'No'. The resolution is based solely on final regular-season rankings, independent of any playoff game results. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Fed January rate cut market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing real-time odds and volume trends. It tracks how traders across platforms price the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut following the January 2027 meeting. You can see the current consensus, volume of $49,231, and 24-hour volume of $6,995 to gauge market momentum. This multi-platform view helps you spot shifts in expectations around Fed policy.

On Polymarket, this market currently reflects a probability weighted toward no rate cut, while many traditional analysts publish a range of expectations based on economic indicators, inflation data, and Fed statements. Prediction markets often price in immediate market reactions and consensus sentiment faster than published reports. The gap between Polymarket odds at 60.5% and analyst averages can signal emerging trends or divergences in how traders versus economists view Fed policy path.

Differences arise because each platform has its own user base, liquidity profile, and trading dynamics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? at 60.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Seattle be the #6 seed in the National Football Conference in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs? at 16.0%. This spread of 44.5 percentage points reflects varied market participation and can amplify price swings as new economic data emerges.

This market resolves around Jan 31, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result hinges on the official Federal Reserve statement and accompanying data released after the January 2027 meeting, which will confirm whether a rate cut occurred.