TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Fed Decision in January?
polymarket
predict

Fed Decision in January?

Total volume:
$508,391
Volume 24h:
$78,466
8%
Liquidity:
$724,885
2%
Open interest:
$102,485N/A

No change

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 28, 2027

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

56%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 57¢ buys you 175 shares | Odds: 56% Total Payout: $175 | Net Profit: $75 Multiplier: 1.75x | ROI: 75% High Projected APY: 606% 105 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No change

Trade
56%
10%
Yes 57¢No 44¢
1¢
$125,148
$120,495
12%
54%
N/A
3mo 2w 1d
active
predict

No change

Trade
56%
Yes 57.8¢No 45.9¢
3.7¢
$31,927
$599
610%
610%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
56.5%
Yes 57.4¢No 45¢
Avg: 2.4¢Max: 3.7¢
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
41%
11%
Yes 41¢No 60¢
1¢
$106,832
$158,904
15%
75%
N/A
3mo 2w 1d
active
predict

25 bps increase

Trade
40%
10%
Yes 41.8¢No 61¢
2.8¢
$31,269
$11,834
5%
6%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
40.5%
Yes 41.4¢No 60.5¢
Avg: 1.9¢Max: 2.8¢
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
2%
Yes 2.5¢No 98.5¢
1¢
$109,490
$83,990
29%
89%
N/A
3mo 2w 1d
active
predict

25 bps decrease

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2%
Yes 2.5¢No 98.5¢
Avg: 50.2¢Max: 99.4¢
predict

50+ bps increase

Trade
50%
47%
Yes 99.4¢No 99.9¢
99.3¢
$33,540
$2
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 98.8¢
0.1¢
$132,049
$59,102
19%
92%
N/A
3mo 2w 1d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.3%
Yes 50.3¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 49.7¢Max: 99.3¢
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
0.1¢
$154,630
$73,465
27%
117%
N/A
3mo 2w 1d
active
predict

50+ bps decrease

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 49.8¢Max: 99.5¢
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks the probability of no change in Fed interest rates following the January 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Currently, the consensus probability of this outcome is 56.5%. This aggregate reflects predictions from Polymarket and Predict, and will resolve based on the FOMC statement and data published on the Federal Reserve website. The resolution rules specify changes will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points. Traders should watch the January 28, 2027 FOMC meeting for the official announcement regarding the target federal funds rate.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict utilize the same resolution source (FOMC statement and Federal Reserve website) and rounding rules for determining the change in interest rates.Primary resolution logic: FOMC statement and data published on the Federal Reserve website (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm and https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
  • Changes less than 12.5 bps will be rounded up to 25 bps.
  • If no FOMC statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to "No change".
  • The relevant date is the January 2027 FOMC meeting (scheduled for January 26-27, 2027).

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Statement: If the FOMC does not release a statement after the January 2027 meeting (or by the end date of the next scheduled meeting), all markets will resolve to "No change".
  • Rounding: Any change in the federal funds rate that is not a multiple of 25 bps will be rounded *up* to the nearest 25 bps for resolution purposes.
Timing: Resolution will occur as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued, or by the end date of the next scheduled meeting if no statement is released.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Predict

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this dashboard tracks the aggregate sentiment around the potential outcome of the January 2027 Federal Reserve decision regarding interest rates. Currently, the consensus view across both platforms suggests a roughly 57.5% chance of no change in rates, as reflected by a combined volume of $508,391. This represents significant interest in the question, with $78,461 traded in the last 24 hours. The January Fed decision market provides a unique view of expectations, distinct from traditional polling or analyst reports.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by institutional biases or incentives, while prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, incentivized by potential financial gains. While both attempt to forecast the same event, the methodologies differ significantly. This market’s current pricing reflects a collective assessment of probabilities, potentially incorporating information not fully captured in conventional analyses. It's important to consider both sources when forming a comprehensive view.

Prices for this market can diverge between Polymarket and Predict due to several factors. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing interpretations of the same data. Trading volume and liquidity also play a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, subtle differences in platform mechanics or user interface can influence trading behavior. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? at 56.5%, while Predict leans toward Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? at 56.0%.

This market resolves around Jan 28, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a change to the federal funds rate following its January 2027 meeting. The outcome will be determined by publicly available statements and official minutes released by the Federal Reserve. Traders should monitor official announcements for clarity regarding the final decision.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Economic data releases, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, will be closely watched. Statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy intentions will also be influential. Unexpected geopolitical events or financial market shocks could also shift expectations. Any indication of a significant shift in the economic outlook or a change in the Fed’s stance is likely to cause price movement in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for traders.