TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.3b
24H VOL:
$107,419,736
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,594,026,835
471,138
Markets across
35,775
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,926
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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Zohran Mamdani
$
Description
This event group forecasts who TIME magazine will select as its Person of the Year for 2026. The markets cover a wide range of individuals and entities, from political figures to celebrities and even abstract concepts like Artificial Intelligence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Opinion markets share the same core resolution logic based on TIME magazine's official announcement and cover.Primary resolution logic: TIME magazine cover or feature article announcing the 2026 Person of the Year.Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is based on explicit naming by TIME magazine.
- Multiple Person of the Year selections will result in multiple 'Yes' resolutions.
- Association with a concept Person of the Year, and being pictured on the cover, qualifies an individual.
- Synonymous concepts are not considered equivalent (e.g., ChatGPT vs. Artificial Intelligence).
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Ambiguous Concepts: If TIME uses vague language (e.g., 'The Protester'), the feature article will be used to interpret the meaning and determine if a listed concept is equivalent.
- No Announcement: If TIME does not announce a Person of the Year by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets will resolve to 'No'.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017. If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
Opinion
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017. If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those in this market, often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts frequently rely on subjective assessments and biases, while prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd. This aggregation can lead to more accurate predictions, as the market prices reflect the collective judgment of many participants. However, analyst forecasts can offer valuable insights into the reasoning behind potential outcomes, complementing the purely probabilistic view offered by this market. It’s useful to consider both when assessing the likelihood of different individuals being named TIME’s Person of the Year.
Prices on Polymarket and Opinion can diverge due to several factors. Differences in user base, trading volume, and market-specific rules all contribute to price discrepancies. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket might attract a different demographic of traders than Opinion, leading to varying risk appetites and opinions. Additionally, liquidity can play a role; lower volume on one platform can result in greater price volatility and divergence from the other. These differences are normal and reflect the independent dynamics of each market.
This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. TIME magazine’s official announcement of their Person of the Year will serve as the basis for determining the winning outcome. The market will then settle based on that announcement. Traders should monitor news sources and TIME’s official channels as Jul 1, 2027 approaches to stay informed about the potential resolution of this market and the selection process.
Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major geopolitical events, significant achievements by public figures, or unexpected crises could all shift the probabilities. Increased media attention surrounding a particular individual, positive or negative, would likely influence trading activity. Any substantial developments in the lives or careers of potential candidates could also cause price movements. Furthermore, major news stories or controversies impacting public perception could dramatically alter the odds in this market as traders react to new information.
