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How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
opinion
polymarket

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

Total volume:
$341,769
Volume 24h:
$2,307
65%
Liquidity:
$52,817
6%
Open interest:
$80,223N/A

0

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

77%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 77¢ buys you 130 shares | Odds: 77% Total Payout: $130 | Net Profit: $30 Multiplier: 1.30x | ROI: 30% | APY: 240% 78 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0

Trade
77%
Yes 77¢No 24¢
1¢
$4,621
$133,556
1%
48%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
opinion

0

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N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
76.5%
Yes 77¢No 24¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

1

Trade
13%
Yes 14¢No 89¢
3¢
$5,638
$45,644
0.37%
36%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
opinion

1

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N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
12.5%
Yes 14¢No 89¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

2

Trade
4%
Yes 4.6¢No 96.5¢
1.1¢
$5,521
$58,294
0.03%
18%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
opinion

2

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N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.1%
Yes 4.6¢No 96.5¢
Avg: 1.1¢Max: 1.1¢
polymarket

3

Trade
3%
Yes 3.8¢No 98.5¢
2.3¢
$14,143
$52,599
0%
14%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
opinion

3

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N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.6%
Yes 3.8¢No 98.5¢
Avg: 2.3¢Max: 2.3¢
polymarket

5

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99¢
0.4¢
$10,937
$24,620
1%
159%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
opinion

5

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N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.2%
Yes 1.4¢No 99¢
Avg: 0.4¢Max: 0.4¢
polymarket

4

Trade
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.3¢
0.5¢
$11,956
$27,056
0%
28%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
opinion

4

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.9%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.3¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 0.5¢
Total markets: 12

Description

This group forecasts how many Millennium Prize Problems will be solved by Artificial Intelligence in 2026. A solution must be announced by an eligible AI lab and be considered a complete solution to the problem, not just partial progress. The Clay Mathematics Institute's list of problems defines the scope.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms present identical questions regarding the number of Millennium Prize Problems solved by AI in 2026, using the same definition of 'solved' and the same list of eligible AI labs.Primary resolution logic: Official information from eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Core resolution logic:

  • A Millennium Prize Problem is considered solved if an eligible AI lab announces a complete solution.
  • Each problem can only be counted once, regardless of multiple announcements from different labs.
  • Announcements of partial results or progress do not qualify as a solution.
  • The Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem is explicitly excluded.
  • The eligible AI labs are pre-defined and include those listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard at the time of the announcement.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Joint Solutions: If a solution is announced jointly by an eligible AI lab and outside researchers, it still counts as a solution from the AI lab, provided the announcement presents the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models.
  • Crediting Outside Researchers: An announcement that *only* credits or congratulates outside researchers, even if they used the lab's models, does *not* qualify.
  • Confirmation by Clay Math Institute: No further confirmation from the Clay Math Institute is required for a market resolution.
Timing: The markets will resolve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, based on announcements made on or before that date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of distinct qualifying Millennium Prize Problems for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each qualifying problem is counted once, regardless of how many eligible AI labs announce a solution to it or how many announcements are made. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the number of distinct qualifying Millennium Prize Problems for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each qualifying problem is counted once, regardless of how many eligible AI labs announce a solution to it or how many announcements are made. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.