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Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
polymarket
predict

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

Total volume:
$53,730
Volume 24h:
$523
4%
Liquidity:
$188,720
6%
Open interest:
$5,051N/A

0.0%–0.8%

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 17, 2026

Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?

23%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 23.1¢ buys you 433 shares | Odds: 23% Total Payout: $433 | Net Profit: $333 Multiplier: 4.33x | ROI: 333% APY not meaningful 30 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0.0%–0.8%

Trade
23%
Yes 23.1¢No 77.9¢
1¢
$3,037
$16,193
0%
1%
N/A
1mo
active
predict

0.0%–0.8%

Trade
23%
2%
Yes 24.9¢No 80¢
4.9¢
$60,059
$32
0%
0%
N/A
1mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
22.6%
Yes 24¢No 79¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 4.9¢
predict

-0.8%–0.0%

Trade
20%
Yes 22.1¢No 82.5¢
4.6¢
$173
$34
0%
0%
N/A
1mo
active
polymarket

-0.8%–0.0%

Trade
20%
Yes 20¢No 81¢
1¢
$1,182
$6,819
0%
0.75%
N/A
1mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
19.5%
Yes 21.1¢No 81.8¢
Avg: 2.8¢Max: 4.6¢
polymarket

0.8%–1.6%

Trade
22%
Yes 32¢No 80¢
12¢
$482
$4,716
0.76%
19%
N/A
1mo
active
predict

0.8%–1.6%

Trade
19%
7%
Yes 22¢No 83.9¢
5.9¢
$29,624
$510
12%
857%
N/A
1mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
19.1%
Yes 27¢No 82¢
Avg: 9¢Max: 12¢
polymarket

1.6%–2.4%

Trade
14%
3%
Yes 17.6¢No 89.3¢
6.9¢
$541
$1,870
20%
26%
N/A
1mo
active
predict

1.6%–2.4%

Trade
10%
Yes 13¢No 92.9¢
5.9¢
$29,837
$121
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
13.9%
Yes 15.3¢No 91.1¢
Avg: 6.4¢Max: 6.9¢
polymarket

-1.6%– -0.8%

Trade
7%
Yes 12¢No 97.5¢
9.5¢
$365
$2,001
0%
41%
N/A
1mo 1d
active
predict

-1.6%– -0.8%

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
7.2%
Yes 12¢No 97.5¢
Avg: 7.8¢Max: 9.5¢
predict

<-2.4%

Trade
31%
33%
Yes 62.2¢No 99.9¢
62.1¢
$60,130
$9,176
0%
0%
N/A
1mo
active
polymarket

<-2.4%

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 5.9¢No 97.2¢
3.1¢
$629
$1,544
0%
2%
N/A
1mo 1d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.4%
Yes 34.1¢No 98.6¢
Avg: 32.6¢Max: 62.1¢
polymarket

2.4%–3.2%

Trade
4%
5%
Yes 6.8¢No 99.3¢
6.1¢
$544
$3,973
0%
6%
N/A
1mo 1d
active
predict

2.4%–3.2%

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.8%
Yes 6.8¢No 99.3¢
Avg: 6.1¢Max: 6.1¢
polymarket

4.0%+

Trade
4%
2%
Yes 6¢No 98.9¢
4.9¢
$495
$815
0%
13%
N/A
1mo 1d
active
predict

4.0%+

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.6%
Yes 6¢No 98.9¢
Avg: 4.9¢Max: 4.9¢
polymarket

3.2%–4.0%

Trade
3%
Yes 5¢No 98.6¢
3.6¢
$727
$1,506
0%
2%
N/A
1mo 1d
active
predict

3.2%–4.0%

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.2%
Yes 5¢No 98.6¢
Avg: 3.6¢Max: 3.6¢
polymarket

-2.4%– -1.6%

Trade
3%
Yes 5.1¢No 99.5¢
4.6¢
$897
$4,421
0%
0.63%
N/A
1mo 1d
active
predict

-2.4%– -1.6%

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.8%
Yes 5.1¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 4.6¢Max: 4.6¢
Total markets: 20

Description

This event group concerns the annualized quarter-over-quarter growth rate of Japan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2026. The markets aim to predict whether this growth rate will fall into specific percentage ranges, or exceed a certain threshold.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms utilize the same source, definition, and resolution logic for Japan's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate.Primary resolution logic: Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution will be based on the 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' from table 1-1 of the GDP release.
  • The reported value will be rounded to one decimal place.
  • If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the higher range bracket will be used.
  • If Q3 2026 data is unavailable by the release of Q4 2026 data, the last available quarter's data will be used.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Data Revisions: Data revisions after the initial release will not be considered for resolution.
  • Reporting Format Changes: Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure.
Timing: November 16, 2026, the scheduled release date for the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q3 2026. If Q3 2026 data is unavailable by the release of Q4 2026 data, resolution will occur at the time of the Q4 2026 release.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html

Predict

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often provide a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be subject to biases or incentives that influence their predictions, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and perspectives. While analyst forecasts for Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth may vary, the collective prediction represented by this market offers a real-time assessment of probabilities based on actual trading volume and sentiment. It’s a useful tool to compare against conventional economic projections.

Differences in prices between Polymarket and Predict on this market can arise due to several factors. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structures, which can lead to varying levels of liquidity and price discovery. Additionally, differing risk appetites among traders on each platform can influence their willingness to buy or sell specific outcomes. These factors contribute to the potential for price discrepancies, even when both platforms are tracking the same underlying event.

This market resolves around Nov 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official GDP growth rate for Japan in Q3 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the annualized quarter-over-quarter growth rate as reported by the relevant statistical agency. Traders will be able to see the final result and how it aligns with their predictions after the official data release. This market provides a way to forecast and profit from this important economic indicator.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market before Nov 17, 2026. Major economic policy changes in Japan, such as shifts in monetary policy or fiscal stimulus packages, could influence GDP growth expectations. Global economic conditions, including the performance of major trading partners like the United States and China, will also play a role. Unexpected geopolitical events or natural disasters could disrupt economic activity and affect the market. Additionally, revisions to previous GDP data or changes in economic forecasts from leading institutions could all contribute to price movements.