TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.2b

24H VOL:

$139,262,101

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,798,566,680

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,770,072,055

512,063

Markets across

38,451

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,850

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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In which month will Anthropic IPO?
polymarket
predict

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

Aug 19, 2026, 9:36 AM EST - Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$433,521
Volume 24h:
$7,725
61%
Liquidity:
$60,809
69%
Open interest:
$48,746N/A

November 2026

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?

71%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 74¢ buys you 135 shares | Odds: 71% Total Payout: $135 | Net Profit: $35 Multiplier: 1.35x | ROI: 35% | APY: 29% 434 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

November 2026

Trade
71%
5%
Yes 74¢No 32¢
6¢
$2,343
$1,026
0%
126%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

November 2026

Trade
68%
6%
Yes 69.8¢No 33¢
2.8¢
$7,901
$102,320
2%
16%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
68.4%
Yes 71.9¢No 32.5¢
Avg: 4.4¢Max: 6¢
predict

December 2026

Trade
32%
46%
Yes 62¢No 99¢
61¢
$3,203
$12
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

December 2026

Trade
17%
4%
Yes 18.4¢No 84.9¢
3.3¢
$6,682
$56,020
2%
7%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
16.8%
Yes 40.2¢No 92¢
Avg: 32.2¢Max: 61¢
polymarket

January 2027

Trade
12%
1%
Yes 14.2¢No 89.7¢
3.9¢
$5,235
$17,232
0.01%
26%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

January 2027

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
12.3%
Yes 14.2¢No 89.7¢
Avg: 3.9¢Max: 3.9¢
polymarket

February 2027

Trade
2%
Yes 2.5¢No 99.4¢
1.9¢
$2,362
$10,405
0%
17%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

February 2027

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.6%
Yes 2.5¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 1.9¢Max: 1.9¢
polymarket

April 2027

Trade
1%
Yes 2.2¢No 99.8¢
2¢
$1,944
$10,431
0%
28%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

April 2027

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.2%
Yes 2.2¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
predict

May 2027

Trade
98%
27%
Yes 98¢No 2¢
—
$2,624
$203
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

May 2027

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.5¢
0.9¢
$1,952
$9,962
0.12%
17%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1%
Yes 49.7¢No 50.7¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 0.9¢
polymarket

March 2027

Trade
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.7¢
1.2¢
$1,797
$11,137
0%
23%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

March 2027

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.9%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 1.2¢Max: 1.2¢
polymarket

No IPO before 2028

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.6¢
0.6¢
$5,700
$17,127
0.07%
9%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

No IPO before 2028

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.7%
Yes 1¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 0.6¢
polymarket

June 2027

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$1,607
$10,013
0%
22%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

June 2027

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 0.8¢
polymarket

July 2027

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$1,743
$8,924
0%
13%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

July 2027

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 0.8¢
polymarket

September 2027

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
0.6¢
$1,855
$9,086
0%
17%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

September 2027

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 0.6¢
polymarket

October 2027

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
0.6¢
$1,846
$9,042
0%
17%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

October 2027

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 0.6¢
polymarket

August 2027

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
0.6¢
$2,003
$8,869
0%
17%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 0.6¢
Total markets: 25 of 34

Intro

This market tracks the month in which Anthropic will complete its initial public offering (IPO). Currently, the consensus probability that Anthropic’s IPO will occur in May 2027 is 96.0%. This prediction aggregates data from Polymarket and Predict, and will resolve based on the primary exchange where Anthropic shares begin trading. Given the resolution rules specifying a ‘No IPO before 2028’ outcome if certain conditions are met, market participants should watch for news regarding potential mergers or acquisitions involving Anthropic before December 31, 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms utilize identical resolution criteria, focusing on the first day of public trading and defining alternative resolution conditions for mergers/acquisitions or no IPO by the end of 2027.Primary resolution logic: Primary exchange where Anthropic shares begin trading

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is determined by the calendar month of the first day of regular-way trading of Anthropic shares on a public securities exchange.
  • If Anthropic is acquired or merged with a publicly traded entity (including a SPAC), the market resolves to 'No IPO before 2028'.
  • If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'No IPO before 2028'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Direct Listing: A direct listing is considered an IPO for resolution purposes, as it involves shares becoming publicly traded.
  • Trading Halt: A temporary trading halt on the first day of trading will not prevent resolution, provided trading resumes on the same calendar day.
Timing: Resolution will occur after Anthropic shares are listed and open for regular-way trading on a public securities exchange, or after December 31, 2027, if no IPO has occurred.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in which Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO) occurs. The resolving month will be the calendar month (ET) containing the first day on which Anthropic shares are listed and open for regular-way trading on a public securities exchange. An IPO refers to Anthropic shares becoming listed and open for trading on a public securities exchange, whether through a traditional initial public offering or a direct listing. If Anthropic goes public through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, including a special purpose acquisition company, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.

Predict

This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in which Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO) occurs. The resolving month will be the calendar month (ET) containing the first day on which Anthropic shares are listed and open for regular-way trading on a public securities exchange. An IPO refers to Anthropic shares becoming listed and open for trading on a public securities exchange, whether through a traditional initial public offering or a direct listing. If Anthropic goes public through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, including a special purpose acquisition company, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this market dashboard tracks predictions on when Anthropic will have its initial public offering. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $433,521, with $2,547 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard provides a consensus view of the probability of an IPO occurring in different months, combining data from both venues. Polymarket currently favors Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? at 68.4%, while Predict leans toward Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in May 2027 (ET)? at 98.0%. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of the collective wisdom regarding the timing of this significant event in the tech industry.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by company relationships or biases, while prediction markets aggregate the views of a diverse group of individuals with financial stake in the outcome. This can lead to more accurate predictions, as the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ often outperforms individual experts. However, it’s important to note that both sources have limitations. Analyst reports provide detailed reasoning, while this market reflects real-time sentiment and potential inside information, creating a dynamic and potentially leading indicator.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity levels. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Different risk appetites and information access among traders on each platform also contribute to price discrepancies. For example, Polymarket might attract more sophisticated traders with access to specific information, while Predict might have a broader, more general audience. These varying factors result in distinct price formations, even when tracking the same underlying event, the Anthropic IPO.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official date Anthropic announces its initial public offering, as reported by reputable financial news sources. The determination will focus on the month in which the IPO officially commences, not preliminary filings or announcements. Traders should monitor news sources leading up to Jan 1, 2028 for updates on Anthropic’s IPO plans, as this will ultimately determine the outcome of this market.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any official announcements from Anthropic regarding its IPO timeline, such as filing an S-1 registration statement with the SEC, would be a major catalyst. Broader market conditions, particularly the performance of the tech sector and the IPO market as a whole, will also play a role. Positive or negative news regarding Anthropic’s financial performance, technological advancements, or regulatory scrutiny could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, competitor actions, such as a successful IPO from a similar AI company, could influence expectations and move the odds in this market.