TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

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$141,541,542

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2,388,728,490

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$1,440,096,988

406,065

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30,522

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2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?
polymarket
kalshi

Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?

Volume:
$15,348

Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 19, 2026

Closed: Aug 19, 8:32 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,795
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Before 4AM Aug 12

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,687
N/A
N/A
$3,678
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Before 10AM Aug 12

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,067
N/A
N/A
$3,067
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Before 5AM Aug 12

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,372
N/A
N/A
$1,372
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Before 2AM Aug 12

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,293
N/A
N/A
$1,134
Settled
No
kalshi

Before 1AM Aug 12

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$114
N/A
N/A
$114
Settled
No
kalshi

Before 3AM Aug 12

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
No
kalshi

Before Aug 12

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This event group concerns whether Weibo (WB) will exceed its quarterly earnings estimates. The market will resolve based on the company's reported non-GAAP EPS compared to a consensus estimate of $0.36.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental category misalignment - markets are resolving entirely different events despite being grouped togetherHero tip: These markets should not be treated as related. Polymarket resolves based on financial performance data while Kalshi resolves based on election timing data. Any attempt to correlate outcomes would be invalid.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves if Weibo reports non-GAAP EPS > $0.36 in its next quarterly earnings release, with specific source hierarchy rules for earnings figures and a 45-day deadline fallback
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on Associated Press timing of calling the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary winner, with multiple time-threshold options all occurring in August 2026
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Weibo is estimated to release earnings on August 19, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Weibo’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.36 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Weibo reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.36 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Weibo releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the Associated Press (AP) will issue a definitive call of a winner for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary before specific early morning time thresholds on August 12, 2026. A definitive call requires explicit language—such as 'has won,' 'will win,' or 'is projected to win'—appearing on AP’s primary platforms (main website, television broadcast, or official social media). Qualifiers like 'appears to' or 'likely to' disqualify the statement. The timing is based on when the call first becomes publicly visible, not internal decision times. Even if the call is later retracted, the market resolves as 'Yes' based on the initial announcement. Preliminary data, third-party reports, opinion pieces, and technical errors do not count. Multiple time-based markets exist, each with progressively later thresholds from midnight to 10 a.m. ET, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of an early call.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Weibo earnings beat market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing how traders across platforms price the chance of a positive earnings surprise. It displays current odds, volume of $15,348, and 24-hour volume of $10,059, letting you compare sentiment in real time. This centralized view helps you see where the market consensus stands and spot shifts as new financial reports or macro data emerge.