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Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by...?
polymarket

Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by January 1, 2027?

Volume:
$31,231

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 18, 2026

Closed: Sep 18, 9:59 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20,398
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2d
Yes
polymarket

December 31

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,833
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kolodiazi, Donetsk Oblast, (49.085881° N, 37.886668° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Ukraine Kolodiazi re-entry market displays the current odds of Ukraine re-entering Kolodiazi by the resolution date. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $31,231, and the 24-hour volume is $10,125. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and activity related to this specific geopolitical event.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Currently, this market suggests a strong belief in a specific outcome regarding Ukraine’s potential re-entry into Kolodiazi. It’s important to remember that analysts may base their predictions on traditional research methods, while this market reflects the aggregated views of a diverse range of traders, potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. Discrepancies can highlight areas of disagreement or differing levels of confidence.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Ukraine has re-established a military or administrative presence within the Kolodiazi area by the resolution date. The outcome will be determined based on evidence from reliable sources, such as official government statements, reports from international organizations, and verified media coverage. The intention is to provide a clear and objective assessment of the event’s occurrence.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the ongoing conflict, such as significant territorial gains or losses by either side, would likely cause price fluctuations. Official statements from Ukrainian or Russian officials regarding Kolodiazi could also move the market. Additionally, changes in international support for Ukraine, or shifts in the overall geopolitical landscape, could influence trader sentiment and adjust the probabilities reflected in this market. Any credible reports of troop movements or military activity in the area would also be closely watched.