TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 9:03 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Tradeweb is estimated to release earnings on October 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Tradeweb’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.04 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tradeweb reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.04 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Tradeweb releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Tradeweb is estimated to release earnings on October 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Tradeweb’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.04 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tradeweb reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.04 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Tradeweb releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for Tradeweb's earnings. While analysts provide estimates based on financial modeling and company reports, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, risk tolerance, or interpretations of economic indicators. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own assessment of Tradeweb’s potential performance and whether they will beat expectations.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Tradeweb will beat quarterly earnings. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, leading to dynamic price adjustments. Higher demand for shares indicating a beat will drive up the price, while increased selling pressure will lower it. This creates a real-time assessment of market sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether Tradeweb’s reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus EPS estimate of financial analysts covering the company. The consensus estimate will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider at the time of the earnings release. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their prediction aligned with the actual earnings result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding Tradeweb’s performance, such as pre-earnings announcements, changes in market conditions affecting the financial technology sector, or broader economic data releases, could influence trader sentiment. Analyst upgrades or downgrades, competitor earnings reports, and major industry trends are also potential catalysts. Unexpected macroeconomic events or shifts in investor risk appetite could also lead to substantial price movements in this market as traders adjust their expectations.