TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:38 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.
Currently, the collective prediction made through this market offers a unique perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts for Tesla’s stock performance. While analysts often provide price targets and ratings, this market represents a weighted assessment of many individual opinions, expressed through actual trades. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are based on models and assumptions, whereas this market reflects real-money sentiment. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of disagreement or differing expectations regarding Tesla’s future.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Tesla (TSLA) will finish the week of October 26 above the specified price. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares bought, the higher the price goes, indicating increasing confidence in Tesla finishing above that level. Conversely, more shares sold drive the price down, suggesting decreasing confidence. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the latest information and collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Tesla (TSLA) stock on the Friday of the week of October 26 will be used to determine whether the market resolves in favor of the ‘yes’ or ‘no’ outcome. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider and will serve as the definitive record for settlement. Traders should monitor news and market data leading up to this date.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Major news regarding Tesla, such as earnings reports, vehicle delivery numbers, or announcements about new products or technologies, could all cause substantial price movements. Broader economic indicators, like interest rate changes or shifts in the overall stock market, could also play a role. Additionally, any unexpected events affecting the electric vehicle industry or the automotive sector as a whole could impact trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of shares in this market.