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Will Russia enter Preobrazhenka by...?
polymarket

Will Russia enter Preobrazhenka by January 1, 2027?

Volume:
$18,720

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Closed: Sep 15, 3:09 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,671
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2d
Yes
polymarket

December 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,048
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Preobrazhenka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.574595° N, 35.812497° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Preobrazhenka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.574595° N, 35.812497° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current odds of Russia entering Preobrazhenka, along with the price history and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $9,144 and overall volume is $18,720. Users can see how the market is valuing the probability of this event occurring, and observe shifts in sentiment over time. The dashboard provides a clear visualization of trader activity and the implied probability as expressed through the market price. This allows for a quick assessment of where the crowd stands on the likelihood of Russia’s advance.

Comparing the odds in this market to external analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. While analysts often offer varying opinions on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine war, this market provides a single, quantifiable probability. Currently, the implied probability differs from many publicly available forecasts, suggesting a unique perspective from those directly trading on the outcome. It’s important to note that analysts may consider a broader range of factors, but this market focuses solely on the specific event of Russia entering Preobrazhenka, offering a focused prediction.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of Russia entering Preobrazhenka, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information and changing perspectives. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. This dynamic pricing system allows for a real-time assessment of the event's probability.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Russia has established a military presence within the boundaries of Preobrazhenka, as determined by widely accepted geographic definitions and confirmed by reliable sources. The resolution will be based on objective evidence and not subject to interpretation or debate. This timeframe allows for sufficient observation to determine the outcome with a high degree of certainty, providing clarity for all participants in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly impact the price of this market. Major military offensives by either side, shifts in international diplomatic efforts, or significant changes in the control of key territories are all potential catalysts. Unexpected political developments within Russia or Ukraine could also influence the market. Furthermore, credible reports of troop movements towards Preobrazhenka, or statements from key military or political figures, could trigger substantial price fluctuations. Any news that alters the perceived probability of Russia entering Preobrazhenka will likely move this market.