TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Will Russia enter Matiasheve by...?
polymarket

Will Russia enter Matiasheve by...?

Volume:
$34,042

August 31

 - Polymarket

August 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 8, 2026

Closed: Aug 8, 1:31 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

August 31

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$24,772
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 31

100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,270
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 1d
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Matiasheve, Donetsk Oblast, (48.408940° N, 37.067703° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Matiasheve, Donetsk Oblast, (48.408940° N, 37.067703° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Russia Matiasheve invasion market tracks real-time odds and price movements on Polymarket. It shows how traders are betting on whether Russia will enter Matiasheve by the deadline, along with current volume of $34,042 and 24-hour volume of $14,434. This gives you a live view of market sentiment and trading activity for this specific event.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Any confirmed entry by Russia into Matiasheve, as reported by authoritative news outlets or official government announcements, will determine the result.

Several developments could shift this market before Oct 31, 2026. Key signals include official military deployments, diplomatic announcements from involved nations, or significant escalations reported by credible international media. Each new development may cause rapid re-pricing as traders reassess the likelihood of Russia entering Matiasheve, especially when events appear near the deadline.