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Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

Aug 24, 2026, 8:08 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$60,320
Volume 24h:
$4,998
3,034%
Liquidity:
$17,477
9%
Open interest:
$30,971N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?

14%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 15¢ buys you 667 shares | Odds: 14% Total Payout: $667 | Net Profit: $567 Multiplier: 6.67x | ROI: 567% APY not meaningful 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
14%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
1¢
$12,275
$46,957
12%
44%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
4%
Yes 4.8¢No 96.6¢
1.4¢
$5,202
$13,363
0%
11%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location in Dobropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia1-6bc31d8213.png Dobropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia%202-daa3abcc03.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/GzbpmgPN3LpxzvrcA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location in Dobropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia1-6bc31d8213.png Dobropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia%202-daa3abcc03.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/GzbpmgPN3LpxzvrcA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks the latest odds, price history, and 24-hour volume for the Dobropillia capture market. It shows how traders on the platform are pricing the likelihood of Russia capturing Dobropillia by the deadline, updated in real time. The view includes current top-outcome chances and total volume of $60,320, letting users monitor market sentiment and activity trends on Polymarket alone.

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s odds reflect a collective trader view that can diverge noticeably. While analysts may issue probability estimates based on military reports and strategic assessments, the market price incorporates real-time betting behavior and may shift faster with new intelligence. Traders often see a different angle than traditional forecasts, especially when 14.5% implies a sharper or more cautious outlook than recent expert commentary.

On Polymarket, this market uses trader bets to set its current odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The probability reflects collective expectations about whether Russia will capture Dobropillia by the deadline. Volume of $60,320 shows overall interest, while recent 24-hour volume of $3,411 indicates current momentum. Traders adjust positions based on military updates, geopolitical developments, and analyst reports, causing price shifts. A higher percentage suggests greater confidence in Russia achieving the objective within the timeframe, while a lower value implies doubts about their ability to do so.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch official military announcements, reputable news outlets, and verified geopolitical updates to determine whether Russia captures Dobropillia by the deadline. The market settles based on evidence that meets general public-availability standards, without reference to internal platform mechanisms.

Several signals could shift this market before Jan 1, 2027. Military advances or setbacks by Russian forces in the Dobropillia area will heavily influence trader sentiment. Reports of new weaponry deployments, strategic withdrawals, or major battles could cause rapid price changes. Broader geopolitical developments — such as international sanctions, diplomatic negotiations, or shifts in support for Ukraine — may also affect odds. Analysts’ updates and intelligence leaks often move markets, as they reshape expectations about timelines and probabilities. Any verifiable progress toward control of Dobropillia before the deadline will be closely watched by traders.