TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?

Volume:
$660

Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?

 - Polymarket

Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 10, 2026

Closed: Sep 10, 11:36 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$576
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 105°F

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group assesses whether Phoenix will experience an Extreme Heat Warning for 10 or more days during August 2026. The markets differ in their specific criteria for what constitutes a warning day.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets use different thresholds and timeframes to define a 'Yes' outcome: Polymarket requires 10+ days of Extreme Heat Warnings in August, while Kalshi only requires a 7-day average above 105°F.Hero tip: Traders should treat these as separate bets with distinct resolution paths. A 'Yes' on Kalshi does not guarantee a 'Yes' on Polymarket due to the differing thresholds and timeframes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Requires 10+ calendar days under an Extreme Heat Warning for NWS zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) in August 2026. Uses NWS warnings or observed highs of 110°F+ at KPHX if NWS data is unavailable.
  • Kalshi: Resolves Yes if the average temperature in Phoenix is above 105°F for August 10–16, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve "Yes" if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for a cumulative total of 10 or more calendar days during August 1–31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August. Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count. In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.

Kalshi

If the average temperature in Phoenix is above 105 degrees Fahrenheit for Aug 10 - 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Phoenix extreme heat market shows aggregated odds and volume from multiple prediction platforms. It tracks how traders price the likelihood of Phoenix experiencing an Extreme Heat Warning for ten or more days throughout August 2026. You can view total volume of $660 and recent 24-hour volume of $126 to gauge market activity. This real-time view lets participants see consensus and shifts in expectations as new weather data emerges.

Key signals include seasonal climate forecasts, early heat wave patterns, and updates from national weather services. Any announcement of prolonged high-temperature forecasts or emergency preparations in Phoenix can shift trader sentiment. Additionally, unexpected shifts in atmospheric conditions—such as an early monsoon or cooler-than-expected summer—could reduce probabilities, causing rapid price adjustments on platforms tracking this market.