TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:52 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.
Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket suggests a different outlook than some traditional analyst forecasts for NVIDIA. While many analysts maintain a bullish long-term perspective, this market reflects short-term uncertainty regarding the stock’s performance during the specified week. It's important to remember that prediction market odds represent a real-money view, where participants have skin in the game, potentially offering a more accurate signal than polls or opinions alone. The market aggregates diverse perspectives, creating a dynamic forecast.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether NVIDIA’s stock will close above a certain level. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand, responding to news, earnings reports, and overall market sentiment. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, creating a dynamic and efficient price discovery process for this specific event.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of NVIDIA (NVDA) stock on the Friday of the week of October 26 will be compared against the market’s threshold to determine whether the ‘yes’ or ‘no’ outcome prevails. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized financial data source, ensuring transparency and accuracy in determining the final result of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected news regarding NVIDIA’s earnings, new product announcements, or major shifts in the semiconductor industry could all trigger price movements. Broader macroeconomic factors, such as interest rate changes or inflation data, could also impact investor sentiment towards growth stocks like NVIDIA. Additionally, any significant analyst upgrades or downgrades, or unexpected regulatory developments, could contribute to volatility in this market.