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Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above ___ end of October?
polymarket

Will NVIDIA close above its price by October 30, 2026?

Volume:
$3,965

$200

 - Polymarket

$200 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 5:27 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$200

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$652
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$170

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$195
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$190

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$169
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$180

View
100%
47%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$260

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$780
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$280

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$210

View
0%
73%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$388
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$290

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$295
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$270

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$275
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$250

View
0%
45%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$240
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$240

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$199
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$230

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$131
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$220

View
0%
42%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$111
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the NVIDIA stock price market tracks the current implied probability of NVIDIA (NVDA) closing above a certain price point by the end of October. You’ll find the prevailing odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced in different outcomes over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $1,236. Total volume for this market is $3,965. This allows traders to quickly assess the market’s sentiment and activity regarding NVIDIA’s future performance.

Currently, the implied probability from this market suggests a strong belief that NVIDIA’s stock will close above the target price by Oct 30, 2026. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which present a wider range of potential outcomes and varying degrees of confidence. While traditional analyst reports rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many individual traders, potentially offering a different perspective on NVIDIA’s near-term trajectory. It's important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses when evaluating the stock’s potential.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether NVIDIA will close above the target price. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares bought, the higher the price goes, and vice versa, dynamically adjusting the market’s assessment of NVIDIA’s potential performance. This creates a real-time, market-driven forecast of the stock’s future price.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the closing stock price of NVIDIA (NVDA) on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official closing price reported by a major financial exchange. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final result. This provides a clear and objective determination of whether the market’s prediction was accurate.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major announcements from NVIDIA regarding earnings, new product launches (particularly in AI), or changes in market share could all cause substantial shifts in trader sentiment. Broader macroeconomic trends, such as interest rate changes or shifts in investor risk appetite, could also play a role. Unexpected news related to key competitors or disruptions in the semiconductor supply chain could also move this market, as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions accordingly.