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Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?
polymarket

Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?

Volume:
$929

Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

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·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 6:03 PM EST

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Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?

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100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$929
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, Netflix is estimated to release earnings on October 20, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Netflix's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.84 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.84 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Netflix releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Netflix is estimated to release earnings on October 20, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Netflix's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.84 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.84 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Netflix releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market participants are expressing a different view than traditional analyst forecasts regarding Netflix’s upcoming earnings. While many analysts predict a close call, this market indicates a stronger belief that Netflix will exceed expectations. This divergence often reflects the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives than a typical analyst report. It's important to note that analyst forecasts are often point estimates, while the prediction market represents a probability distribution of possible outcomes, offering a more nuanced perspective on the potential for an earnings beat.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Netflix will beat quarterly earnings. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the market's sentiment. This creates a real-time, market-driven forecast that’s distinct from static analyst predictions.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether Netflix’s reported earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus estimate provided by financial analysts prior to the earnings release. The official earnings report from Netflix will serve as the primary source for determining the outcome of this market. Traders will be able to see the final result and any relevant documentation on Polymarket following the earnings announcement.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Any news regarding Netflix's subscriber growth, new content releases, or changes in competition could influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, broader economic indicators, such as overall market conditions and consumer spending data, might also play a role. Unexpected announcements from Netflix management, or revisions to analyst estimates, are also likely to cause price fluctuations. Finally, general investor risk appetite and overall market volatility can impact trading activity and the price of shares in this market.