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Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?
polymarket

Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?

Oct 26, 2026, 8:07 PM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 9:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$869
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$368
44%
Open interest:
$186N/A

Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

1W

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Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:08h:31m

Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?

81%chance
Amount

$

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Trade on Polymarket

At 92¢ buys you 109 shares | Odds: 81% Total Payout: $109 | Net Profit: $9 Multiplier: 1.09x | ROI: 9% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
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polymarket

Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?

Trade
81%
Yes 92¢No 30¢
22¢
$368
$869
0%
4,247%
N/A
3d 8h 31m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, Moderna is estimated to release earnings on November 6, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Moderna's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-1.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moderna reports GAAP EPS greater than $-1.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Moderna releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Moderna is estimated to release earnings on November 6, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Moderna's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-1.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moderna reports GAAP EPS greater than $-1.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Moderna releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Moderna earnings market tracks the current odds of Moderna beating quarterly earnings expectations, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $106, and the total volume traded to date, which is $869. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to this specific outcome. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how the crowd is pricing the probability of a positive earnings surprise from Moderna.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts regarding Moderna’s upcoming earnings. While analysts typically provide point estimates or ranges for earnings per share, this market allows traders to express their collective belief about the probability of beating expectations. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and information access. If analysts are broadly optimistic, we might see higher prices in this market, reflecting that sentiment. Conversely, if the crowd perceives risks not fully captured by analyst models, prices may adjust accordingly.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Moderna will beat quarterly earnings. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price fluctuates, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of a positive earnings report. Higher demand for shares increases the price, indicating greater confidence in Moderna exceeding expectations, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether Moderna’s reported quarterly earnings per share exceed the consensus estimate of financial analysts at the time of the earnings release. The official earnings report from Moderna will serve as the basis for determining whether the market resolves in favor of Moderna beating expectations or not. Traders should monitor financial news sources for the official announcement.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding clinical trial data for Moderna’s key products, updates on regulatory approvals, or changes in the overall market sentiment towards pharmaceutical stocks could influence trading activity. Furthermore, pre-earnings announcements or guidance revisions from Moderna itself would likely cause a substantial price shift. Broader economic indicators and competitor earnings reports could also play a role, as they impact investor expectations for the sector as a whole.