TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 11:01 PM EST
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Opinion
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Microsoft (MSFT) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Microsoft (MSFT), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Microsoft (MSFT) trades governs.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Microsoft (MSFT) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Microsoft (MSFT), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Microsoft (MSFT) trades governs.
Frequently asked questions
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy 'yes' or 'no' contracts. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective belief about the likelihood of Microsoft closing above its current price. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price represents the probability that traders assign to the event occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of success. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Microsoft (MSFT) stock on the last trading day of October will be checked against the price at the time the market was created. If the stock price is above that level, the 'yes' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'no' outcome will be determined. The resolution will be based on official stock market data and will be publicly available following the close of trading on that day.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major announcements from Microsoft regarding earnings, new products, or strategic partnerships could all shift trader sentiment. Broader economic news, such as interest rate changes or shifts in the overall stock market, could also play a role. Unexpected geopolitical events or industry-specific disruptions could also impact Microsoft’s stock price and, consequently, the probabilities reflected in this market. Any news that alters investor confidence in Microsoft’s future prospects has the potential to move the market.
