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471,138

Markets across

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Which company has the best AI model end of November?
predict
polymarket

Which company has the best AI model end of November?

Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM EST - Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$298,799
Volume 24h:
$3,466
68%
Liquidity:
$211,545
17%
Open interest:
$41,941N/A

Google

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 1, 2026

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?

52%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 52.5¢ buys you 190 shares | Odds: 52% Total Payout: $190 | Net Profit: $90 Multiplier: 1.90x | ROI: 90% APY not meaningful 47 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Google

Trade
52%
2%
Yes 52.5¢No 49¢
1.5¢
$29,032
$2,004
0%
28%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Google

Trade
52%
2%
Yes 53¢No 50¢
3¢
$4,839
$48,720
0.27%
49%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
51.5%
Yes 52.8¢No 49.5¢
Avg: 2.3¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
40%
2%
Yes 43¢No 63¢
6¢
$3,433
$61,418
0.56%
21%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
predict

Anthropic

Trade
40%
Yes 39.5¢No 60.6¢
0.1¢
$49,650
$2,887
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
40%
Yes 41.3¢No 61.8¢
Avg: 3.1¢Max: 6¢
polymarket

Meta

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 6.3¢No 97.6¢
3.9¢
$1,664
$25,121
0.39%
48%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
predict

Meta

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.4%
Yes 6.3¢No 97.6¢
Avg: 3.9¢Max: 3.9¢
predict

OpenAI

Trade
9%
5%
Yes 13.9¢No 96.9¢
10.8¢
$10,474
$20
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

OpenAI

Trade
4%
Yes 4.7¢No 97.1¢
1.8¢
$4,211
$22,500
5%
25%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.8%
Yes 9.3¢No 97¢
Avg: 6.3¢Max: 10.8¢
polymarket

SpaceXAI

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.2¢
0.6¢
$8,088
$19,356
0.57%
14%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
predict

SpaceXAI

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.2¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 0.6¢
polymarket

Alibaba

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.4¢
0.4¢
$3,275
$15,935
0.7%
16%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
predict

Alibaba

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.8%
Yes 1¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 0.4¢Max: 0.4¢
polymarket

Moonshot

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
0.1¢
$2,682
$19,597
0.57%
24%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
predict

Moonshot

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

Z.ai

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$2,892
$15,805
0.7%
19%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
predict

Z.ai

Trade
N/A
N/A
1.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1.8¢
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$10,752
$19,798
6%
33%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
predict

DeepSeek

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.3%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

Xiaomi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$6,332
$11,464
2%
23%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
predict

Xiaomi

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.3%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

Baidu

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$8,113
$5,527
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
predict

Baidu

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

ByteDance

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$8,561
$5,446
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
predict

ByteDance

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Meituan

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$7,366
$3,967
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
Total markets: 25 of 42

Intro

This market tracks which company will have the best AI model, as judged by the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard, at the end of November 2026. Currently, the consensus probability favors Google having the leading model with 54.0%, while Anthropic is at 39.5%. This aggregated view combines data from Predict and Polymarket, and will resolve based on the leaderboard data from arena.ai. Keep an eye on the leaderboard rankings as we approach the resolution date of December 1, 2026, which will determine the final standings for this period.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms consistently define resolution based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard rank, Arena score, and company name alphabetical order as tiebreakers.Primary resolution logic: arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the highest rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026.
  • Models marked 'AutoEval' are excluded from consideration.
  • Ties are broken first by Arena score, then by alphabetical order of company names.
  • The company whose model holds the top rank is the resolution outcome.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Leaderboard Unavailability: If the arena.ai leaderboard is unavailable at the check time, the markets will remain open until it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the markets will resolve to 'Other'.
  • Tie in Rank and Score: If models remain tied after considering rank and Arena score, the company name will be used as a tiebreaker, with alphabetical order determining the winner.
Timing: November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ETOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Predict

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".