TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 3:26 PM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Lumentum Holdings Inc is estimated to release earnings on November 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Lumentum Holdings Inc’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.27 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lumentum Holdings Inc reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $4.27 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Lumentum Holdings Inc releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Lumentum Holdings Inc is estimated to release earnings on November 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Lumentum Holdings Inc’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.27 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lumentum Holdings Inc reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $4.27 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Lumentum Holdings Inc releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a roughly 54.5% chance that Lumentum will beat quarterly earnings. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which often present a range of expectations. It's common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and analyst consensus, as this market aggregates the wisdom of many individual traders, potentially incorporating information not reflected in standard financial analysis. Comparing these viewpoints can offer a more nuanced understanding of the potential outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Lumentum will beat earnings. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the collective market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price fluctuates based on supply and demand, meaning that positive news or increased confidence in Lumentum’s performance will likely drive the price up, while negative news will push it down.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) reports quarterly earnings that exceed analysts' expectations, as determined by a widely-recognized financial news source. The final price of shares in this market will reflect the actual outcome, with winning shares paying out $1 and losing shares being worth $0.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding Lumentum's guidance for future earnings, major contract wins or losses, or broader industry trends impacting the optical and photonics sector could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected macroeconomic data releases, particularly those related to technology spending, could also play a role. Finally, any significant announcements from Lumentum’s competitors could indirectly affect the perceived likelihood of Lumentum beating earnings expectations.