TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 6:25 AM EST
Polymarket
Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos are scheduled to begin streaming a hardcore Minecraft marathon on October 5, 2026. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon in a hardcore Minecraft world. This market will resolve to the player with the most individual in-game Minecraft deaths during the entire marathon. If two or more players are tied for the most deaths, this market will resolve to the tied player whose name comes first in alphabetical order. Each player’s number of deaths will be measured as the final value displayed on that player’s individual in-game death counter on Jynxzi’s official broadcast on Twitch at the time Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos complete or end the marathon. If Jynxzi’s individual counters are not available at that time, the number of deaths will be measured as the final values displayed on the individual in-game death counters on StableRonaldo’s official broadcast on Twitch, and if those counters are also not available, on Los Pollos’s official broadcast on Twitch. The values displayed on the counters will be used regardless of how they are calculated, so long as they represent each player’s cumulative deaths occurring across the marathon. It will not matter whether Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos complete the aforementioned challenge, nor whether they modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective. If none of these counters are available at the specified time, or if a counter becomes clearly erroneous or clearly does not represent a player’s cumulative number of in-game Minecraft deaths during the entire marathon, this market will resolve according to the most recent values displayed on the individual in-game death counters, according to the aforementioned hierarchy, that accurately represent each player’s cumulative number of in-game Minecraft deaths during the marathon. This market will remain open until the marathon is declared complete, abandoned, or otherwise finally ended by Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, or Los Pollos, regardless of whether the challenge is completed. If the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve according to the counters at that point. If the marathon is still ongoing as of November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the values displayed on the counters at that time, according to the aforementioned hierarchy. The resolution source for this market will be the individual in-game death counters displayed on Jynxzi’s, StableRonaldo’s, and Los Pollos’s official broadcasts on Twitch and YouTube according to the aforementioned hierarchy.
Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos are scheduled to begin streaming a hardcore Minecraft marathon on October 5, 2026. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon in a hardcore Minecraft world. This market will resolve to the player with the most individual in-game Minecraft deaths during the entire marathon. If two or more players are tied for the most deaths, this market will resolve to the tied player whose name comes first in alphabetical order. Each player’s number of deaths will be measured as the final value displayed on that player’s individual in-game death counter on Jynxzi’s official broadcast on Twitch at the time Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos complete or end the marathon. If Jynxzi’s individual counters are not available at that time, the number of deaths will be measured as the final values displayed on the individual in-game death counters on StableRonaldo’s official broadcast on Twitch, and if those counters are also not available, on Los Pollos’s official broadcast on Twitch. The values displayed on the counters will be used regardless of how they are calculated, so long as they represent each player’s cumulative deaths occurring across the marathon. It will not matter whether Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos complete the aforementioned challenge, nor whether they modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective. If none of these counters are available at the specified time, or if a counter becomes clearly erroneous or clearly does not represent a player’s cumulative number of in-game Minecraft deaths during the entire marathon, this market will resolve according to the most recent values displayed on the individual in-game death counters, according to the aforementioned hierarchy, that accurately represent each player’s cumulative number of in-game Minecraft deaths during the marathon. This market will remain open until the marathon is declared complete, abandoned, or otherwise finally ended by Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, or Los Pollos, regardless of whether the challenge is completed. If the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve according to the counters at that point. If the marathon is still ongoing as of November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the values displayed on the counters at that time, according to the aforementioned hierarchy. The resolution source for this market will be the individual in-game death counters displayed on Jynxzi’s, StableRonaldo’s, and Los Pollos’s official broadcasts on Twitch and YouTube according to the aforementioned hierarchy.
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. For this market, it’s useful to consider whether analysts specializing in gaming or streamer behavior predict a similar outcome distribution to what’s reflected in the current odds. If analysts believe one player is heavily favored, but this market shows a more even spread, it suggests traders disagree with that assessment. Discrepancies can arise from differing information, biases, or simply the wisdom of the crowd effect. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into the potential outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe Jynxzi will have the most deaths, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's liquidity, indicated by the volume, also influences price stability and how quickly odds adjust to new information. Essentially, traders are setting the odds based on their own analysis and risk tolerance.
This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on determining which of Jynxzi, Ron, or Los has the highest number of in-game deaths during the specified period. The final count will be verified against publicly available game statistics and streaming records. The market will then settle, and winning shares will be redeemable for the corresponding payout based on the final odds at resolution. It's important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Changes in the players’ gaming schedules, announcements regarding game updates that might favor one playstyle over another, or even public statements from the streamers themselves could all impact trading activity. Unexpected performance shifts during gameplay, such as one player consistently dying more frequently in recent streams, would likely cause a reevaluation of the odds. Major community discussions or viral clips highlighting a player’s death rate could also influence sentiment and drive volume in this market. Monitoring these factors is key to understanding potential price movements.