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Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?
polymarket

Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?

Volume:
$7,640

Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

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·

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Closed: Sep 24, 6:18 PM EST

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Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?

View
100%
54%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,640
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, Costco is estimated to release earnings on September 24, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Costco's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.69 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco reports GAAP EPS greater than $6.69 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Costco releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Costco is estimated to release earnings on September 24, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Costco's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.69 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco reports GAAP EPS greater than $6.69 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Costco releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Costco earnings market displays the current odds of Costco beating quarterly earnings expectations, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $1,753, and the total volume traded to date, which is $7,640. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific event. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how the crowd is predicting the outcome of the earnings report.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for Costco’s earnings. While analysts typically provide point estimates or ranges, this market allows traders to express a probability distribution of potential outcomes. If analysts are overwhelmingly bullish, we might see a higher price reflecting that expectation in this market. Conversely, if analysts are divided or cautious, the price may be lower. It’s important to remember that prediction markets reflect the collective wisdom of traders, which may differ from the opinions of individual analysts.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Costco will beat quarterly earnings. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; increased buying pressure drives the price up, indicating growing confidence in Costco exceeding expectations, while increased selling pressure drives the price down. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the latest information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether Costco’s reported earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus estimate of financial analysts covering the company. The final price of shares in this market will then reflect whether the consensus expectation was met or missed. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will profit, while those who predicted incorrectly will lose their stake.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any news related to Costco’s sales figures, supply chain issues, or broader economic conditions could influence trader sentiment. A positive pre-earnings announcement or a favorable report from a key industry analyst could drive the price up, while negative news or a downgrade could push it down. Additionally, overall market volatility and investor risk appetite can play a role. Unexpected macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions, could also indirectly affect the price of shares in this market.