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Will Claude go down on __ days in May?
polymarket

Will Claude go down on __ days in May?

Volume:
$59,419

9-11

 - Polymarket

9-11 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

9-11

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,071
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0-2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,898
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,508
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

6-8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3-5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,754
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks how many days in May Claude (claude.ai) will experience any downtime, as recorded on the Claude Status historical uptime page. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—that Claude goes down on 9–11 days in May—stands at 80.0%, while the scenario of 12 or more days of downtime is at 18.0%. Resolution will be determined by the color status boxes displayed on the Claude Status page for the claude.ai component, with each day considered finalized once the following day's status box shows a non-grey color. Watch for the finalization of May's last day, which will trigger resolution by May 31, 2026.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time aggregation of trader beliefs, often incorporating information faster than traditional analyst forecasts. While formal analyst predictions on Claude downtime frequency may lag or rely on historical averages, prediction markets price in current expectations and breaking developments. The $59,419 in total market volume suggests active participation and confidence in the pricing. Comparing market odds to published analyst estimates or industry reliability reports can reveal whether traders are pricing in more or less downtime risk than expert consensus suggests.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by the actual number of days Claude experienced downtime during May. Resolution depends on verified data about service interruptions and their duration. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome bucket receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The specific definition of what constitutes a downday and how it is measured will be established by the market's resolution criteria, ensuring clarity and fairness for all participants.

Several factors could shift odds before May 31, 2026. Announcements of infrastructure upgrades or maintenance windows may increase expected downtime. Conversely, reports of improved system reliability or redundancy could lower downtime expectations. Real downtime incidents during May will directly influence pricing as traders update their forecasts. Industry-wide outages or cloud provider disruptions could also impact Claude availability. Additionally, any public statements from Anthropic about service stability, scaling challenges, or operational changes will likely trigger repricing. Early-month downtime data will be particularly influential in shaping final odds.