TOTAL VOLUME:

$117.2b

24H VOL:

$97,415,793

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,187,972,594

342,446

Markets across

34,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,573

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Will Claude go down on __ days in August?
Other
polymarket

Will Claude go down on any days in August?

Jul 29, 2026, 3:59 PM EST - Aug 31, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$43,197
Volume 24h:
$7,065
29%
Liquidity:
$4,793
5%
Open interest:
$7,992N/A

8-10

 - Polymarket

8-10 - Polymarket

81%

+19%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 26

Aug 27

Aug 28

Vol.

$5.7k

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 03d:13h:38m

Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?

81%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 81¢ buys you 123 shares | Odds: 81% Total Payout: $123 | Net Profit: $23 Multiplier: 1.23x | ROI: 23% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the August Claude downtime market, alongside 24-hour volume of $4,328. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of specific downtime scenarios throughout August, with a top outcome currently at 80.5% probability. The interface updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and trading activity on Polymarket alone.

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market currently shows a higher probability of multiple downtime events, with the top outcome at 80.5%. Analysts often emphasize infrastructure stability, while traders on Polymarket may react more quickly to technical updates or rumors. The gap between these views can shift if new reliability data emerges before Aug 31, 2026, making this market a live barometer of crowd-sourced expectations.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set prices through binary contracts that pay out based on recorded downtime events. The current odds reflect aggregated bets on how many times Claude will go down during August, with the top outcome priced at 80.5%. Volume of $43,197 shows the depth of this market, and price fluctuations often follow technical announcements or service updates from the operator.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number of downtime days in August is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch official status pages and trusted tech news sources for real-time confirmation of any service interruptions. The final count determines which market outcome is settled, closing all positions on or shortly after Aug 31, 2026.

Any announcement about system upgrades, cyber-incident reports, or network maintenance schedules could move this market. Traders on Polymarket will also react to broader tech-sector reliability news that affects investor sentiment. Volume spikes may occur around scheduled maintenance windows or after security advisories are published, shifting the probability toward outcomes with higher or lower downtime counts before Aug 31, 2026.