TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 11:38 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Ares Management is estimated to release earnings on October 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Ares Management’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.34 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ares Management reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.34 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Ares Management releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Ares Management is estimated to release earnings on October 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Ares Management’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.34 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ares Management reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.34 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Ares Management releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for ARES. While analysts typically provide point estimates or ranges for earnings per share, this market allows traders to express their beliefs about the probability of ARES exceeding expectations. This can reveal a different level of confidence, or disagreement, than what’s reflected in standard financial analysis. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently than the consensus view of analysts covering ARES.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether ARES will beat quarterly earnings. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares bought, the higher the price, and the greater the implied probability. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective wisdom of traders participating in this market. The current price indicates what traders collectively believe is the likelihood of a positive earnings surprise from ARES.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether ARES Management (ARES) reports quarterly earnings that exceed analyst expectations as determined by a widely recognized financial data provider. The final price of shares in this market will then reflect whether ARES beat earnings or not, providing a clear outcome based on publicly available financial data. Traders will be able to claim their winnings or losses following the official resolution.
Several signals and events could significantly influence this market before Oct 29, 2026. Any news related to ARES’s financial performance, such as pre-earnings announcements, changes in analyst ratings, or broader economic indicators impacting the financial sector, could cause shifts in trading activity. Unexpected macroeconomic data releases, particularly those affecting interest rates or investment sentiment, could also move the market. Additionally, news concerning ARES’s competitors or the overall performance of the asset management industry could impact trader confidence and influence the price of shares in this market.