Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings?
Start: 2026-10-16T16:45:43.000Z
End: 2026-10-27T13:00:00.000Z

Description

As of market creation, Ares Capital is estimated to release earnings on October 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Ares Capital’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.49 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ares Capital reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.49 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Ares Capital releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Ares Capital is estimated to release earnings on October 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Ares Capital’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.49 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ares Capital reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.49 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Ares Capital releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Ares Capital earnings market provides real-time insights into how traders are pricing the likelihood of Ares Capital beating quarterly earnings expectations. You can view the current odds, represented as a percentage chance, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $513, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,482. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific event.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a strong probability that Ares Capital will exceed earnings expectations. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which often present a range of possibilities and may be more conservative in their projections. While analysts consider various financial models and company reports, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are directly incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. It’s important to note that prediction markets can sometimes offer an earlier and more concentrated signal of expectations than traditional sources.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether Ares Capital’s reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus EPS estimate provided by financial analysts prior to the earnings release. The final result will be determined by publicly available financial data released by Ares Capital and reported by reputable financial news sources. Traders will be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the verified outcome.

Several factors could influence the price movement of this market leading up to resolution. Any news regarding Ares Capital’s financial performance, such as pre-earnings announcements or revisions to analyst estimates, would likely have a significant impact. Broader economic indicators, particularly those related to the financial sector, could also play a role. Unexpected events affecting the overall market sentiment, like major geopolitical developments or interest rate changes, might also cause shifts in trading activity. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of Ares Capital’s earnings potential could move this market.

Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings?

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