TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 11, 4:19 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Apple (AAPL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Apple (AAPL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for Apple’s stock performance. While analysts often provide price targets and ratings based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the wisdom of the crowd, aggregating diverse opinions and incorporating real-time information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s valuable to consider both viewpoints—analyst reports and the collective prediction reflected in this market—to form a more comprehensive outlook on Apple’s potential trajectory.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Apple’s stock will finish above a specified price. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, shown by the order book, reveals the level of demand and supply at different price points. The volume of $8,976 suggests a moderate level of interest in this particular question, and traders are actively adjusting their positions based on new information and evolving sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Apple (AAPL) stock on the Friday of the week of September 7 will be compared against the market’s specified threshold. The market will settle to 100 if the stock price is above the threshold, and to 0 if it is below. All trading will cease at the resolution time, and the final outcome will be determined based on publicly available financial data.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Major announcements from Apple regarding new products, earnings reports, or changes in company leadership would likely cause price fluctuations. Broader economic indicators, such as inflation data, interest rate decisions, or overall market sentiment, could also play a role. Unexpected news events affecting the technology sector or Apple’s competitors could also shift trader perceptions. Any significant shifts in analyst ratings or widespread media coverage of Apple’s stock could also contribute to movement in this market.