TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 11:13 PM EST
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Apple (AAPL) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Apple (AAPL), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Apple (AAPL) trades governs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Apple (AAPL) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Apple (AAPL), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Apple (AAPL) trades governs.
Currently, this market reflects a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for Apple’s stock performance. While analysts typically provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing beliefs as probabilities. These probabilities can diverge from standard forecasts based on differing interpretations of available information or a greater consideration of unforeseen events. It's important to note that analyst predictions are often based on fundamental analysis, while this market incorporates both fundamental and sentiment-based factors.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Apple (AAPL) stock on the final trading day of the week of October 26 will be compared to the market’s threshold. The resolution will be based on official data from a recognized financial exchange, ensuring an objective determination of whether the market resolves in favor of the ‘yes’ or ‘no’ outcome. The resulting price will be publicly available and used to determine payouts.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Major announcements from Apple regarding new products, earnings reports, or changes in company leadership would likely cause price fluctuations. Broader economic news, such as interest rate decisions or shifts in overall market sentiment, could also play a role. Unexpected geopolitical events or industry-specific disruptions could also move the market. Any news that alters investor perception of Apple’s future prospects has the potential to impact trading activity and the implied probability reflected in this market.