TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:54 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Apple (AAPL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Apple (AAPL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the Apple stock market. While analysts often provide price targets based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of information, risk appetite, or the inclusion of factors not typically considered by analysts. Examining these differences can provide a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes for Apple’s stock price.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Apple’s stock will finish the week of October 26 above the specified price. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the market’s probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the end date approaches, the more the price will likely reflect new information and investor sentiment surrounding Apple’s performance. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Apple (AAPL) stock on the Friday of the week of October 26 will be compared to the market’s threshold. If the stock price is above that level, the market will resolve positively; otherwise, it will resolve negatively. The resolution will be based on widely recognized financial data sources and will reflect the official closing price for that trading day.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major announcements from Apple regarding new products, earnings reports, or changes in company leadership would undoubtedly impact investor sentiment. Broader economic indicators, such as inflation data, interest rate decisions, or overall market trends, could also play a role. Unexpected news related to Apple’s supply chain, regulatory challenges, or competitor actions could also cause substantial shifts in the market’s price. Any significant event affecting the technology sector as a whole could also influence trading activity.