TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 11:10 PM EST
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Opinion
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Amazon (AMZN) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Amazon (AMZN) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Amazon (AMZN), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Amazon (AMZN) trades governs.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Amazon (AMZN) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Amazon (AMZN) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Amazon (AMZN), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Amazon (AMZN) trades governs.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the odds in this market reflect a collective prediction about Amazon’s stock price, which may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressed as probabilities. If a significant number of traders believe Amazon will outperform expectations, the odds will shift accordingly. It’s important to remember that analyst predictions and prediction market probabilities represent different approaches to forecasting, and both can offer valuable insights.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of Amazon finishing the week of September 14 above the specified price. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who buy contracts indicating a 'yes' outcome, the higher the price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market odds reflect the most up-to-date collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Amazon (AMZN) stock on the Friday of the week of September 14 will be checked against the market’s threshold. If the stock price is above that level, the 'yes' outcome will be verified; otherwise, the 'no' outcome will be verified. The resolution will be based on standard financial data sources and widely accepted market practices.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major news regarding Amazon’s financial performance, such as earnings reports or revenue forecasts, would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Broader economic indicators, like inflation data or interest rate decisions, could also influence investor sentiment towards Amazon and, consequently, this market. Unexpected announcements related to Amazon’s key product lines or competitive landscape, or even significant movements in the overall stock market, could all contribute to price fluctuations.
