Will 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Will 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings?
Start: 2026-10-07T19:19:58.000Z
End: 2026-10-20T13:00:00.000Z

Description

As of market creation, 3M is estimated to release earnings on October 20, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for 3M’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.41 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 3M reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.41 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If 3M releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, 3M is estimated to release earnings on October 20, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for 3M’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.41 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 3M reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.41 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If 3M releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the 3M earnings market tracks the current odds of 3M beating quarterly earnings, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $88, and the total volume traded to date, which is $3,609. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific market. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how the crowd is assessing the likelihood of a positive earnings report from 3M.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a strong likelihood that 3M will beat quarterly earnings. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which often present a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes and caveats. While analyst opinions are valuable, this market provides a unique perspective based on the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. It's important to note that prediction market odds represent a probabilistic assessment, similar to a poll, and may not perfectly align with the specific numerical targets set by financial analysts.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether 3M’s reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus estimate provided by financial analysts prior to the earnings release. The final price of shares in this market will reflect whether 3M successfully beat those expectations, offering traders a clear outcome based on publicly available financial data. The market will then close and payouts will be distributed accordingly.

Several factors could significantly influence the price movement of this market before its resolution. Any news related to 3M’s performance, such as pre-earnings announcements, changes in industry trends, or broader economic indicators, could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements from competitors or shifts in analyst ratings could also play a role. Furthermore, major macroeconomic events or unforeseen disruptions affecting 3M’s supply chain or demand could cause fluctuations in the market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.

Will 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings?

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