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2,388,728,490

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400,720

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30,097

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2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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39%

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Which company does Ox Alpha belong to?
polymarket
predict

Which company does Ox Alpha belong to?

Volume:
$960,001

Z.ai

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 26, 2026

Closed: Aug 26, 6:48 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Z.ai

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$550,149
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
Yes
predict

Z.ai

View
100%
7%
Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢
—
$51,950
$166,757
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
predict

Safe Superintelligence

View
1%
3%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢
0.6¢
$345
$963
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
polymarket

Safe Superintelligence

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,514
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
predict

Xiaomi

View
0%
2%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢
1.5¢
$403
$4,696
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,619
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
predict

Google

View
0%
4%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢
0.6¢
$427
$560
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
polymarket

Google

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$116,043
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
predict

Cursor

View
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢
0.8¢
$300
$1,975
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
polymarket

Cursor

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,950
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,190
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
predict

Tencent

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,783
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
predict

Nvidia

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,147
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
predict

xAI

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
polymarket

Amazon

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,948
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
predict

Amazon

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
polymarket

Mistral

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,910
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
predict

Mistral

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
polymarket

Microsoft

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,819
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
predict

Microsoft

View
N/A
N/A
—
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
polymarket

StepFun

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,707
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
predict

StepFun

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
polymarket

ByteDance

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,641
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
Total markets: 25 of 56

Description

This event group determines which company developed the stealth reasoning model Ox Alpha, which will be made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026. The resolution will depend on official announcements from the developer company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict use identical resolution criteria, including announcement requirements, joint development handling, and the 'Other' fallback.Primary resolution logic: Official announcements from the respective company or OpenRouter, with credible reporting as a secondary source

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution requires an official public announcement from the developer company or OpenRouter
  • Joint development resolves to the primary developer, or alphabetically among listed companies
  • If no clear identification by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other'

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Joint Development: If two or more companies are identified as developers, the market resolves to the primary developer. If none is primary, companies are ordered alphabetically and the first listed wins.
  • Unlisted Joint Developer: Any jointly identified company not listed in the market group is treated as 'Other' for alphabetical ordering purposes.
Timing: December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ETOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation. This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements. A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks. If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”. If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Predict

Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation. This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements. A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks. If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”. If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Ox Alpha parent company market aggregates real-time data from multiple prediction platforms, showing how traders price the likelihood of different corporate affiliations. It displays current probabilities, trading volume, and recent movements across all venues tracking this question. By centralizing these metrics, the dashboard offers a snapshot of collective wisdom and market sentiment, helping users monitor shifts in perception around which organization stands behind Ox Alpha.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. User demographics and liquidity levels vary between Polymarket and Predict, creating price differences. Each platform attracts distinct trader groups who may prioritize different information sources or signals. Additionally, volume disparities can amplify small trades into larger moves, especially when $960,001 remains low. These factors combine to produce divergent odds, reflecting unique market dynamics on each venue rather than a single consensus view.