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Where will it rain this weekend (Sep 19 - Sep 20)?
kalshi

Where will it rain this weekend (Sep 19 - Sep 20)?

Volume:
$72,314

Denver

 - Kalshi

Denver - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 3:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Denver

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,901
N/A
N/A
$7,087
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Chicago

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,124
N/A
N/A
$4,850
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Boston

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,145
N/A
N/A
$3,249
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Atlanta

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,645
N/A
N/A
$4,075
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Miami

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,469
N/A
N/A
$3,010
Settled
Yes
kalshi

West Palm Beach

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,177
N/A
N/A
$3,467
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Minneapolis

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,929
N/A
N/A
$3,156
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Trenton

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,086
N/A
N/A
$2,947
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Philadelphia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,686
N/A
N/A
$2,112
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Newark

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,455
N/A
N/A
$2,089
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York City

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,219
N/A
N/A
$1,861
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Phoenix

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,030
N/A
N/A
$3,285
Settled
No
kalshi

Seattle

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,722
N/A
N/A
$2,762
Settled
No
kalshi

Washington DC

View
0%
88%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,204
N/A
N/A
$1,048
Settled
No
kalshi

Oklahoma City

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,808
N/A
N/A
$1,238
Settled
No
kalshi

San Francisco

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,360
N/A
N/A
$2,084
Settled
No
kalshi

Las Vegas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,090
N/A
N/A
$1,874
Settled
No
kalshi

Los Angeles

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,600
N/A
N/A
$1,498
Settled
No
kalshi

New Orleans

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,594
N/A
N/A
$960
Settled
No
kalshi

Houston

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,146
N/A
N/A
$835
Settled
No
kalshi

Dallas

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$969
N/A
N/A
$335
Settled
No
kalshi

San Antonio

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$574
N/A
N/A
$290
Settled
No
kalshi

Austin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$379
N/A
N/A
$311
Settled
No
Total markets: 23

Description

This event tracks whether measurable rainfall will occur in various major U.S. cities over a specific weekend. Each location has its own criteria for what constitutes a positive outcome based on precipitation data. The resolution depends on official weather measurements for each city.

Kalshi

Each market corresponds to a specific U.S. city and resolves to 'Yes' if the total precipitation recorded at the designated weather station for that city exceeds zero inches on either September 19 or September 20, 2026. 'Trace' amounts and missing data are counted as zero. All outcomes are determined using official data provided by The Weather Company, ensuring consistency across all locations despite variations in consumer weather sources. The evaluation period covers both days of the weekend, with any measurable rain on either day satisfying the condition for a 'Yes' result. Each city's measurement point is clearly specified, and the same data interpretation rules apply uniformly to all markets.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the weekend rainfall market tracks the current odds of rain falling in various locations this weekend. You’ll find the implied probability of each outcome, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $28,996, and the total volume traded to date, which is $72,314. This provides a clear picture of how traders are assessing the likelihood of rainfall and how market sentiment is evolving.

Currently, prediction market odds represent a different perspective than traditional weather analyst forecasts. While analysts often rely on complex models and historical data, this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, the inclusion of subjective factors, or simply the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect. If analysts predict a 60% chance of rain, this market might show a different probability based on traders’ assessments of those same factors, or new information not yet incorporated into the analyst models.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, whether or not it will rain in specific locations this weekend. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by new information, changing weather patterns, and traders’ reactions to those changes, creating a dynamic and responsive pricing mechanism.

This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official rainfall measurements reported by established meteorological sources. These sources will determine whether the specified rainfall thresholds have been met in the locations covered by this market. The outcome will be determined by whether or not it rained at the specified locations during the designated weekend period, as verified against credible public sources.

Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly the issuance of storm warnings or the shift in predicted rainfall patterns, would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected weather events, such as the rapid development of a low-pressure system, could also trigger substantial movement. Additionally, any news related to climate patterns or unusual atmospheric conditions could influence traders’ assessments and impact the market. Overall, any new information impacting the probability of rainfall this weekend has the potential to move this market.