TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
When will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released?
polymarket

When will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released?

Volume:
$36,747

October 26–November 1

 - Polymarket

October 26–November 1 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 5:24 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 26–November 1

View
100%
54%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,796
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

No release by December 27

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,044
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
No
polymarket

November 16–November 22

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,083
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 6d 3h
No
polymarket

November 2–November 8

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,804
N/A
N/A
N/A
6d 3h 17m
No
polymarket

November 9–November 15

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,776
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 3h
No
polymarket

December 7–December 13

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,602
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 4d
No
polymarket

November 30–December 6

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,505
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
No
polymarket

December 21–December 27

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,467
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
No
polymarket

November 23–November 29

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,326
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 6d 3h
No
polymarket

Prior to October 26

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$699
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

December 14–December 20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$646
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2w 4d
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the GPT Terra model release market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $17,550, and the total volume for this market is $36,747. Users can view how the implied probability of different release dates changes over time, providing insights into market sentiment. The dashboard offers a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets regarding when Anthropic will release the next iteration of its GPT Terra model, allowing for a dynamic understanding of expectations.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence versus expert opinion. Currently, this market reflects the aggregated predictions of a diverse group of traders, potentially incorporating a wider range of information than a single analyst might consider. While some analysts predict a release in late 2025, this market's pricing suggests a different probability distribution, potentially indicating disagreement with those forecasts or access to non-public information. It's important to note that market odds represent what traders are willing to pay for a given outcome, not necessarily a definitive prediction.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different release dates. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that date being the actual release date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to new information and updates regarding the development and testing of the GPT Terra model. Higher demand for shares in a particular release date drives up the price, indicating increased confidence in that outcome, while decreased demand lowers the price.

This market resolves around Dec 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the release date of the GPT Terra model (version 5.7 or higher) is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on an official announcement from Anthropic regarding the availability of the new model. The specific version number and release date will be verified against public sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders should monitor official Anthropic channels for updates leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any official announcements from Anthropic regarding the development progress, testing phases, or potential delays of the GPT Terra model would be major catalysts. Unexpected breakthroughs in AI research or regulatory changes impacting the deployment of large language models could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, leaks or credible reports from industry insiders regarding the release timeline could cause rapid shifts in the market. Positive or negative feedback from early testers of the model could also impact expectations and, consequently, the pricing within this market.