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When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
polymarket

When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?

Volume:
$15,507

October 1 to October 10, 2026

 - Polymarket

October 1 to October 10, 2026 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Closed: Oct 8, 10:40 AM EST

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View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 1 to October 10, 2026

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,548
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

No Atlantic hurricane will form in October 2026

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,358
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 26 to October 31, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,182
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 21 to October 25, 2026

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,175
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 11 to October 15, 2026

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,160
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 16 to October 20, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,085
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of market creation the NHC had not classified any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any point in the 2026 season, so the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 is the first Atlantic-basin system the NHC classifies as a hurricane during October 2026. Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the issuance timestamp of the first NHC public advisory classifying it as a hurricane in the Atlantic basin, not the estimated time at which its winds first reached 74 mph. That first advisory governs regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. A system whose first classifying advisory straddles midnight between October 31 and November 1, 2026 falls in the October 26 to October 31 bracket only if that advisory was issued before 12:00 AM ET on November 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in October 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026, regardless of whether an Atlantic hurricane forms later in 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in October 2026". The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Polymarket

This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of market creation the NHC had not classified any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any point in the 2026 season, so the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 is the first Atlantic-basin system the NHC classifies as a hurricane during October 2026. Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the issuance timestamp of the first NHC public advisory classifying it as a hurricane in the Atlantic basin, not the estimated time at which its winds first reached 74 mph. That first advisory governs regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. A system whose first classifying advisory straddles midnight between October 31 and November 1, 2026 falls in the October 26 to October 31 bracket only if that advisory was issued before 12:00 AM ET on November 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in October 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026, regardless of whether an Atlantic hurricane forms later in 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in October 2026". The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season tracks the probabilities associated with different dates for the formation of the first hurricane. You’ll find a dynamic display of the current odds, reflecting the collective predictions of traders on the platform. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, and displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,159. Total volume for this market is $15,507, indicating the level of interest in forecasting this event.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. While pre-season forecasts from organizations like NOAA typically focus on the overall expected number of storms, this market specifically asks when the *first* hurricane will form. This difference in framing can lead to notable divergences in predictions. It’s important to note that prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and incentivize accurate forecasting, potentially offering a more real-time and nuanced view than static seasonal outlooks.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of each share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe a specific date is likely, the price of shares corresponding to that date will increase. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s dynamic nature means that probabilities can shift rapidly in response to new information or changing sentiment regarding the potential for early storm development.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the formation date of the first Atlantic hurricane in 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the primary source for official hurricane tracking and identification, and their reports will be used to determine the resolution. The market will settle to the date on which the NHC officially designates the first hurricane of the season, regardless of whether it makes landfall or remains at sea.

Several signals could significantly influence this market. Early seasonal forecasts released by NOAA and other meteorological organizations will likely cause price adjustments. Any unusual atmospheric patterns developing in the spring of 2026, such as a strong El Niño or La Niña, or unusually warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, could also shift probabilities. Furthermore, the actual progression of early tropical disturbances and the intensity forecasts issued by the NHC will be key drivers of price movement as the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season approaches.