TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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What will the next Muse model family be named?
polymarket

What will the next Muse model family be named?

Volume:
$121,828

Other

 - Polymarket

Other - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 4:46 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Other

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,235
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
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Muse Fire

0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,399
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Muse Blaze

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,799
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Muse Watermelon

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,393
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Muse Flare

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,159
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Muse Nova

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,522
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Muse Flame

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,322
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

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1mo 4w 1d
No
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No
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1mo 4w 1d
No
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1mo 4w 1d
No
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No
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No
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No
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No
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No
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No
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No
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No
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No
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No
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No
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No
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No
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1mo 4w 1d
No
Total markets: 25 of 33

Description

This market will resolve according to the model family name of the next model Meta releases in a new model family, released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying release is Meta's first publicly released model of a new model family. New versions, updates, modes, variants, or re-releases of models in existing families will not qualify. Each listed option's family name is its name excluding "Muse". This market will resolve to the listed option whose family name, together with "Muse", appears in the qualifying model's official name, regardless of word order, capitalization, spacing, punctuation, or hyphenation, and regardless of accompanying modifiers such as version numbers, dates, or mode, size, or variant designations. A family name appearing only as part of a longer word will not count. If the official name contains the family names of multiple listed options, this market will resolve to the option that comes first in alphabetical order, exactly as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to "Other" if no qualifying release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the qualifying model's official name does not include "Muse", contains no word other than "Muse" and such modifiers, or contains no listed option's family name. The official name is the name under which the model is presented in Meta's primary launch announcement or, absent one, its model card. API identifiers, URL slugs, interface labels, and codenames will not be considered. Any subsequent renaming, cancellation, or reclassification will not affect resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. This market will resolve according to the first qualifying release. If multiple models are released on the same calendar date (ET), all will be considered; if only one qualifies, this market will resolve according to it. If multiple qualify, this market will resolve to the option that comes first in alphabetical order, exactly as listed in this market group. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the model family name of the next model Meta releases in a new model family, released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying release is Meta's first publicly released model of a new model family. New versions, updates, modes, variants, or re-releases of models in existing families will not qualify. Each listed option's family name is its name excluding "Muse". This market will resolve to the listed option whose family name, together with "Muse", appears in the qualifying model's official name, regardless of word order, capitalization, spacing, punctuation, or hyphenation, and regardless of accompanying modifiers such as version numbers, dates, or mode, size, or variant designations. A family name appearing only as part of a longer word will not count. If the official name contains the family names of multiple listed options, this market will resolve to the option that comes first in alphabetical order, exactly as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to "Other" if no qualifying release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the qualifying model's official name does not include "Muse", contains no word other than "Muse" and such modifiers, or contains no listed option's family name. The official name is the name under which the model is presented in Meta's primary launch announcement or, absent one, its model card. API identifiers, URL slugs, interface labels, and codenames will not be considered. Any subsequent renaming, cancellation, or reclassification will not affect resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. This market will resolve according to the first qualifying release. If multiple models are released on the same calendar date (ET), all will be considered; if only one qualifies, this market will resolve according to it. If multiple qualify, this market will resolve to the option that comes first in alphabetical order, exactly as listed in this market group. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the next Muse model market tracks the probabilities of various potential names for the next model family. You can view the current odds for each outcome, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $18,409. Total volume for this market is $121,553. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the probabilities have shifted over time as traders buy and sell shares in each possible name. This provides a dynamic view of what the crowd believes is most likely.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders can buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. Conversely, selling pressure decreases the price and probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds continuously adapt to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official name of the next Muse model family is publicly announced by the developers. The resolution will be verified against credible public reporting from official Muse channels, such as their website or official social media accounts. The outcome will be determined by the first publicly released name for the new model family, regardless of any internal codenames or pre-release speculation. Traders should monitor official announcements for the definitive resolution of this market.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any official teasers or hints from the Muse development team regarding the next model’s theme or naming conventions would likely cause substantial shifts in probabilities. Leaks, even unconfirmed ones, could also move the market, although traders may discount information from unofficial sources. Major announcements about the model’s features or target audience could also influence perceptions and trading activity. Finally, broader trends in AI naming or branding could subtly affect sentiment and impact the odds in this market.