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What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 27, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 27, 2026?

Volume:
$5,869

Magnitude of at least 5.2

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 7:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,001
N/A
N/A
$1,677
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
0%
76%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,031
N/A
N/A
$395
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$842
N/A
N/A
$674
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$780
N/A
N/A
$780
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$377
N/A
N/A
$309
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$222
N/A
N/A
$220
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$214
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$175
N/A
N/A
$149
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
$124
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It focuses on the possibility of seismic activity reaching certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour period.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on September 27, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold. The magnitude used for resolution is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify as resolving the market. If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed according to contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a different magnitude threshold, ranging from 5.2 to 7.0, with higher thresholds requiring more extreme seismic events.