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What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 14, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 14, 2026?

Volume:
$8,626

Magnitude of at least 5.4

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 9:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,479
N/A
N/A
$1,982
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,775
N/A
N/A
$1,675
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,584
N/A
N/A
$1,362
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$981
N/A
N/A
$702
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$775
N/A
N/A
$774
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$318
N/A
N/A
$282
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$275
N/A
N/A
$261
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$248
N/A
N/A
$239
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$181
N/A
N/A
$153
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It assesses the likelihood of seismic activity reaching certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour period.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on September 14, 2026, between midnight and just before midnight UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold. The magnitude used for resolution is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify as resolving the market. If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed according to contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a different magnitude threshold, ranging from 5.2 to 7.0, with higher thresholds representing increasingly rare seismic events.