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What will the biggest earthquake be on October 29, 2026?
polymarket

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 29, 2026?

Volume:
$6,116

6.1 or more

 - Polymarket

6.1 or more - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 4:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

6.1 or more

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,423
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

5.7 to 5.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,321
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.9 to 6.0

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,016
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.3 to 5.4

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$512
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.5 to 5.6

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$425
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Under 5.3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$419
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 29, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 29, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 30, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 29, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 30, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 29, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 29, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 30, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 29, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 30, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the October 2026 earthquake market tracks the probabilities associated with different magnitude ranges for the largest earthquake occurring on October 29, 2026. You'll find the current odds for each outcome, along with a price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The 24-hour volume indicates how much trading activity has occurred in the last day, giving you a sense of current market interest. Currently, the total volume for this market is $6,116 and the 24-hour volume is $613.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome, and the price of these shares reflects the market's collective probability assessment. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to incorporate new information and perspectives. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe a larger earthquake is likely, they'll buy shares, driving up the price and increasing the implied probability of that outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded on October 29, 2026, will be determined using data from established seismological networks and agencies. The outcome will be based on the highest magnitude earthquake recorded globally on that specific date and will be verified against credible public sources. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process for this market.

Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Significant seismic activity in the weeks or months leading up to October 29, 2026, particularly near major fault lines, could increase overall awareness and trading volume. New scientific research or reports on earthquake probabilities could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected geological events, such as volcanic eruptions or large landslides, might also trigger market movement, as they can sometimes be precursors to seismic activity. Any major news related to earthquake preparedness or risk assessment could also play a role.